October 1, 2008

Battlegrounds Shift

Fivethirtyeight.com is showing this as today's average projected outcome map for the election:

Somewhat dispiriting for the GOP. I mean, Indiana -- a dead heat. Indiana -- the home of Dan Quayle and the highest per-capita NRA membership east of the Rocky Mountains. Your typical Hoosier's idea of a liberal vote is Evan Bayh. And McCain is running neck-and-neck against an unreconstructed Great Society quasi-progressive Democrat there.

Never mind Colorado and Virginia. McCain isn't fighting for the win right now; he's fighting to maintain some semblance of dignity.

Keep in mind that the polls used to build this map were completed before George W. Bush took to the airwaves to scare the hell out of the entire world and before Congress failed to pass the bailout bill because House Republicans lacked sufficient leadership to support something the President had asked them to support. Come Saturday or Sunday, we'll start to see some early polls reflecting what will happen then. I might expect it to look something like this:

For those of you keeping score at home, that would be Obama 413, McCain 125. Even with things looking as bad as they are, I can't see McCain doing much worse than this, no matter what happens. But then again, McCain might wind up tied with Barry Goldwater and just above Walter Mondale on the list of Electoral College Blowout Victims.


zzi said...

Please earmark this Post.

I guess your looking for more work downtown

Thomas said...

worst case for mccain imo, 278-260 (with mccain losing iowa, nevada, colorado, and new mexico)

the race will get closer in the last month