While reading a deeply interesting post on education reform, I came across this video, which was the third or fourth link to it I had seen in a day:
A lot of things really stand out in the video for me.
First, the video makes the point that humanities and liberal arts classes really are good -- when well-taught -- at getting students to develop the sorts of skills like critical thinking, autonomous and creative problem-solving, and written communications which are truly important in most professional environments I come across (and which are sadly lacking in so many fields of life).
But for some reason, a having degree in Neoclassical French Literature seems like it would be a death knell for a resume intended to land a non-academic job. It blows right by this point, as if it were obvious that were you to hire that French Literature major, you'd be happy with him but society is somehow prejudiced against the arts and humanities. The video blows right by why that prejudice might exist.
My suggestion to answer that unanswered question is the old Vietnamese proverb: a fish rots from the head down. While in theory, the intensive study of Neoclassical French Literature could teach critical thinking, develop good writing abilities, and inspire autonomous and creative problem solving, in practice it does not do these things, because French Literature, like a lot of humanities classes, are taught by teaching assistants and/or professors who themselves lack critical thinking, problem solving, and written communications skills themselves. There is a perception that to succeed in a liberal arts program, a student need only parrot back the professor's own opinion to her, can use academic gobbledegook and fuzzy reasoning in the place of rigorously-examined language and logical skills, and has been the beneficiary of grade inflation to the point that any quantifiable academic evaluation of the student's performance is meaningless.
In other words, the assumption out there in the marketplace is that humanities professors are useless, otherwise-unemployable twits who do nothing but smoke a lot of weed and train otherwise-intelligent young people in how to also become useless, unemployable, weed-smoking twits.
The reality may well be different, but that's the perception. But is the perception really that far off the mark? Less so than most professional academics would be comfortable admitting, I'll wager, at least in a forum where they could be identified by their colleagues. Teaching critical thinking is hard, in part because it requires at minimum that one think critically oneself. Teaching good writing skills is difficult, in part because it requires having good writing skills oneself and in part because it is time-consuming and not focused on the substantive subject professors believe they have been hired to teach.
Second, the video makes a clever pun concerning the arts and the use of pharmaceutical aids to combat attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Experiencing the arts is a consuming, focused, mentally stimulating task -- one that is aesthetic. By contrast, the use of drugs to control ADHD is an anesthetic technique, one which deadens a person's susceptibility to stimulation, which diminishes one's ability to feel and respond to the outside world. That's a nice pun.
And the third issue is the point made about ADHD diagnoses being regionally clustered. I couldn't believe this was true when I fist saw it. It didn't take much time to track down where that graphic element of the video came from. Using this data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a map can be created which demonstrates that as a general trend, the further to the U.S. southeast one gets the more likely an elementary or high school student is to be diagnosed with ADHD. That map was originally drafted by an artist at the Associated Press and it looks like the picture to the right.
A closer look at the map and the underlying numbers, however, shows that there is some lying with statistics going on here. You'll notice that the difference in color between the various states is dramatic -- it's easy to see a difference between Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, for instance. But compare lowest-tier Illinois with highest-tier Kentucky, right next door. Illinois has a diagnosis rate of 7% or lower. Kentucky has a diagnosis rate of more than 10%. That's potentially a difference of as little as 3.1%. But by picking the gradations between tiers the way it did, the AP turns the raw CDC data into a dramatic geographic trend; you might ask after looking at the chart, "Is there something bad in the water of the Southern states?" No, there isn't. The color choices and tier gradation choices only gives that impression.
The CDC data points to about half of the ADHD-diagnosed kids overall being treated with drugs like Ritalin. The few kids on Ritalin I've seen in my limited experience at high schools over the past couple of years bear a passing resemblance to zombies from the movies -- they are quiet and sit still, which surely makes a teacher's job easier, but they are also not particularly mentally engaged with much of anything. It's hard to imagine that their grades have gone up because of the drug; what may be happening is that the kid's disciplinary problems go away but his mental baseline is lowered in the process.
For that reason alone, my remarks here should not be understood as a dismissal of the claim that ADHD is over-diagnosed and that making a practice of treating teenagers with powerful psycho-pharmaceuticals is a particularly good idea. I like that the author of the video, among other people, are raising this flag because it seems to me that another way to diagnose ADHD is to call it "adolescence." Teenagers don't sit still, they never have. Teenagers don't pay attention to their teachers, they never have. This is nothing new, and it's something that can be addressed in quite a lot of different non-pharmacological ways.
But I'm not convinced at all that there is a dramatic regional difference between the states in diagnosing this condition. While over-diagnosis and mistreatment of ADHD strikes me as something likely to be a real problem within primary and secondary education, this data, at least, does not support that conclusion.
Fourth, the author makes the point that a lot of learning occurs in groups rather than in book study, homework, testing, or individualized instruction. This may be true, but my experiences with both online and live teaching in format which required me to have students work in groups for the purpose of working in groups can only be described as uniform failures. "Learning Groups" are very useful and educational for demonstrating the economic concept known as the "free rider problem," but not much else. What I observed happening in damn near every "Learning Group" I ever monitored was one student doing all of the work and the rest doing damn near nothing, with the result that they all got the same grade. This is unfair, and just as important, it results in only the one student actually learning anything while the rest of the students just coast. So consciously setting up team learning exercises is probably a bad way to go, but perhaps there are ways to integrate group learning activities that are less ham-handed and are not readily susceptible to free riders.
Industrial-style standardization probably is a bad way to go. But the video goes too far in suggesting that standardized testing is counter-productive. There has to be some sort of way to quantify and evaluate student progress and thus teacher performance. Perhaps the current regime is not doing a good job of that, but at the same time a standardized test does measure something.
But perhaps the biggest ideas that I felt good about after seeing the video was the possibility that the humanities could be rescued from their current status as a backwater area for ambitious graduates seeking employment if critical thinking and written language skills can be re-injected into humanities curricula. This will require that instructors acquire and demonstrate those skills themselves, and it also requires that they give less-than-stellar grades for students who demonstrate less-than-stellar performance in those areas regardless of the students' mastery of the substantive subject matter of the class.
This means that there must be sufficient time for an instructor to convey and evaluate those things in meaningful ways, which takes away from time that could otherwise be spent on teaching multiple classes, and it takes away time that could otherwise be spent on research and academic writing. This implicates the publish-or-perish impulse that drives faculty incentives at a lot of academic institutions, too.
The video was deeply flawed. But it nevertheless raises a lot of issues, a great many things to consider about one's own education and the way other people will be educated in the future. It inspires real thought. In that respect alone, it is a worthwhile use of the ten minutes it asks of you.
Showing posts with label Lying With Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lying With Statistics. Show all posts
October 14, 2010
August 30, 2010
Know The Odds
At a booze-enhanced social gathering a couple weeks ago, I met a woman who had been convicted of some kind of Federal drug offense. She was pleasant enough to talk to but when she found out I was a lawyer, she wanted to tell me all about her story and how unfair it was that she had been "forced" to plead guilty and hadn't really done anything wrong.
Now, it's not like I think I got the whole story from this woman after she'd had a few cocktails at a social gathering. Chances are pretty good that if her attorney told her she was better off entering into a plea arrangement, there was a reason for that. In my experience people convicted of serious crimes are always elliptical in telling people they've just met all of the relevant facts. This woman specifically had some serious problems with her tale. She couldn't or wouldn't articulate the name of the charge to which she had pled guilty. Sketchy. She also claimed that she had been tried for the exact same crime, three times in a row, in the same court, and that she accepted a guilty plea only after having been acquitted twice previously. Something makes me doubt that both her second and third defense attorneys were so dim as to have forgotten the double jeopardy rule during the course of two jury trials (professors tend to dwell on the double jeopardy rule in most law schools), so once again, there was almost certainly more to the story than was disclosed to me.
This is not uncommon. In the bulk of social events where I meet new people and they find I'm a lawyer, I wind up getting told half or less of a story, all from one person's perspective, and asked to affirm that an injustice has been done. Which is one of the hazards of the profession and as professional hazards go, that one isn't all that awful.
But here's my point for today's post. This woman said that if she thought she had been given a reasonable chance to present her case, she would have been acquitted. However, she believed (without reference to any kind of systemic or statistical data) that federal prosecutors win basically all their cases because the system is stacked in their favor. She feared the odds against her. That's what she claimed motivated her to plead guilty to a charge of which she said she was innocent.
In some ways, she was right to fear the prosecution. There are a lot of institutional advantages that the prosecution has, not the least of which is the aura of righteousness, credibility, and truth in which the prosecution and its primary supporting witnesses (law enforcement officers of various kinds) come clothed to court. They're wearing the white hats, you're not, and that's a very big deal. But there are also some other factors at play, such as the occasional juror or judge who takes the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence seriously, and various rules of evidence that stands in between the jury and just any old bit of hearsay, wild suppositions of a cop, or unsubstantiated speculation offered by someone with an advanced degree. So my overall impression of the system is that a guilty verdict in a contested trial is not always a slam dunk for the prosecution.
And having met and socialized with prosecutors before, my impression was that of the cases that actually go to a jury, the prosecution wins roughly half of them. My new acquaintance simply disbelieved me.
By way of Defending People, I have found some statistics with which this dispute can be validated. The vast majority of cases are disposed of by way of guilty pleas, which is common knowledge. About 90% of all Federal cases and more than 70% of state court cases (looking at the 75 largest counties in the US) are disposed of with guilty pleas. And indeed, my interlocutor pled guilty herself in her own case, in her own description because she feared the odds of proceeding to trial.
But this statistic looks at the total number of criminal cases filed and compares them to their dispositions. That wasn't the proposition as framed--of the cases that go to a jury, what are the statistical chances that the prosecution comes up with a guilty verdict? The U.S. Department of Justice has done that research for me. While their newsletter points to the glowing odds of success for prosecutors overall, by breaking out the guilty pleas and looking only at cases where no plea is entered, we find that the odds at trial are actually favorable to defendants.
In state court, only 15.42% of all non-plea cases result in guilty verdicts. Close to four out of five are then dismissed. The odds are better for the prosecution in Federal court, where 40.99% of the non-plea cases produce guilty verdicts; just under half of the cases get dismissed when there is no plea. Now, only a tiny number -- just under 5% in state court and just over 9% in Federal court -- result in acquittals. But a dismissal is as good as an acquittal from the defendant's point of view, because it results in no conviction.
So my interlocutor was not only wrong, I was too -- we were both too generous to the prosecution. Of the cases in which there is no plea arrangement, the prosecution loses most of the time.
A reasonable claim can be made that these may be numbers that conceal more than they reveal. For one thing, there is no breakout of jury versus bench verdicts. Most of the non-plea cases resolved by dismissal rather than verdict, so who initiated the dismissals? Some were motions by the defense, some were made by the prosecutors in the interest of justice, and some initiated sua sponte by the court, and we have no breakdown there, much less any understanding of what went in to those decisions. Were the dismissals with or without prejudice? Stipulated or opposed? How many of them were made after the court entertained evidence, or after it had empanelled a jury? How many of them were followed up by a referral for prosecution in the parallel system? The DoJ report doesn't answer any of that for us.
What it does say is that overall, if there is no plea, guilty verdicts result a bit more than two times out of five in Federal court, and a bit more than one time in seven in state court. My interlocutor was very wrong; the prosecution doesn't win them all; even I was too generous to them, because the prosecution's win ratio in non-plea matters is statistically worse than half.
When you look at this number, don't lose sight of the fact that most criminal cases resolve by plea. There is a reason for that. So it's time for me to make a
Even if the prosecutor might not be holding as many cards as he wants you to think he is, your case might still suck. Even if you do nothing but play the odds, the prosecutor is going to win enough cases to be scary. Only your own attorney can tell you if you have a realistic chance at walking away with an acquittal after trial. If your case does suck, a plea arrangement may be the best you can realistically hope for. Even odds of one in seven that you're going to be convicted of the charges brought against you should be taken seriously because prison is a Very Bad Place. If going there anyway is a functional inevitability, the right move is probably minimizing the amount of time you must spend there.
So if you real this post and later plead "not guilty" to a felony charge and it doesn't work out for you, don't come crying to me, pal. This blog post is not legal advice, it is only a generalized commentary about the law. It's a blog, for crying out loud. "Oh, I read on the internet that all you have to do is tell the D.A. to take a hike and you pretty much just automatically get off scot free!" That's not what I said -- I mused for a while about a somewhat surprising set of statistics, and then I said, "Your case might suck."
When your defense counsel looks at the case and tells you that you're better off with a plea arrangement, that's legal advice and she's giving it to you for a reason. That reason is not that she's been bribed by the prosecution, it's not that she's prejudiced against you, it's not that she's incompetent or scared to try a case, and it's not it gives her pleasure to suggest it to you. She's on your side. She's very likely the only friend you've got who's in any position to offer you any meaningful help. Treat her accordingly. Listen carefully to her advice, ask her intelligent questions about why she's giving you that advice, and seriously consider following it as dispassionately as you can.
Now, it's not like I think I got the whole story from this woman after she'd had a few cocktails at a social gathering. Chances are pretty good that if her attorney told her she was better off entering into a plea arrangement, there was a reason for that. In my experience people convicted of serious crimes are always elliptical in telling people they've just met all of the relevant facts. This woman specifically had some serious problems with her tale. She couldn't or wouldn't articulate the name of the charge to which she had pled guilty. Sketchy. She also claimed that she had been tried for the exact same crime, three times in a row, in the same court, and that she accepted a guilty plea only after having been acquitted twice previously. Something makes me doubt that both her second and third defense attorneys were so dim as to have forgotten the double jeopardy rule during the course of two jury trials (professors tend to dwell on the double jeopardy rule in most law schools), so once again, there was almost certainly more to the story than was disclosed to me.
This is not uncommon. In the bulk of social events where I meet new people and they find I'm a lawyer, I wind up getting told half or less of a story, all from one person's perspective, and asked to affirm that an injustice has been done. Which is one of the hazards of the profession and as professional hazards go, that one isn't all that awful.
But here's my point for today's post. This woman said that if she thought she had been given a reasonable chance to present her case, she would have been acquitted. However, she believed (without reference to any kind of systemic or statistical data) that federal prosecutors win basically all their cases because the system is stacked in their favor. She feared the odds against her. That's what she claimed motivated her to plead guilty to a charge of which she said she was innocent.
In some ways, she was right to fear the prosecution. There are a lot of institutional advantages that the prosecution has, not the least of which is the aura of righteousness, credibility, and truth in which the prosecution and its primary supporting witnesses (law enforcement officers of various kinds) come clothed to court. They're wearing the white hats, you're not, and that's a very big deal. But there are also some other factors at play, such as the occasional juror or judge who takes the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence seriously, and various rules of evidence that stands in between the jury and just any old bit of hearsay, wild suppositions of a cop, or unsubstantiated speculation offered by someone with an advanced degree. So my overall impression of the system is that a guilty verdict in a contested trial is not always a slam dunk for the prosecution.
And having met and socialized with prosecutors before, my impression was that of the cases that actually go to a jury, the prosecution wins roughly half of them. My new acquaintance simply disbelieved me.
By way of Defending People, I have found some statistics with which this dispute can be validated. The vast majority of cases are disposed of by way of guilty pleas, which is common knowledge. About 90% of all Federal cases and more than 70% of state court cases (looking at the 75 largest counties in the US) are disposed of with guilty pleas. And indeed, my interlocutor pled guilty herself in her own case, in her own description because she feared the odds of proceeding to trial.
But this statistic looks at the total number of criminal cases filed and compares them to their dispositions. That wasn't the proposition as framed--of the cases that go to a jury, what are the statistical chances that the prosecution comes up with a guilty verdict? The U.S. Department of Justice has done that research for me. While their newsletter points to the glowing odds of success for prosecutors overall, by breaking out the guilty pleas and looking only at cases where no plea is entered, we find that the odds at trial are actually favorable to defendants.
In state court, only 15.42% of all non-plea cases result in guilty verdicts. Close to four out of five are then dismissed. The odds are better for the prosecution in Federal court, where 40.99% of the non-plea cases produce guilty verdicts; just under half of the cases get dismissed when there is no plea. Now, only a tiny number -- just under 5% in state court and just over 9% in Federal court -- result in acquittals. But a dismissal is as good as an acquittal from the defendant's point of view, because it results in no conviction.
So my interlocutor was not only wrong, I was too -- we were both too generous to the prosecution. Of the cases in which there is no plea arrangement, the prosecution loses most of the time.
A reasonable claim can be made that these may be numbers that conceal more than they reveal. For one thing, there is no breakout of jury versus bench verdicts. Most of the non-plea cases resolved by dismissal rather than verdict, so who initiated the dismissals? Some were motions by the defense, some were made by the prosecutors in the interest of justice, and some initiated sua sponte by the court, and we have no breakdown there, much less any understanding of what went in to those decisions. Were the dismissals with or without prejudice? Stipulated or opposed? How many of them were made after the court entertained evidence, or after it had empanelled a jury? How many of them were followed up by a referral for prosecution in the parallel system? The DoJ report doesn't answer any of that for us.
What it does say is that overall, if there is no plea, guilty verdicts result a bit more than two times out of five in Federal court, and a bit more than one time in seven in state court. My interlocutor was very wrong; the prosecution doesn't win them all; even I was too generous to them, because the prosecution's win ratio in non-plea matters is statistically worse than half.
When you look at this number, don't lose sight of the fact that most criminal cases resolve by plea. There is a reason for that. So it's time for me to make a
BIG DISCLAIMER:
YOUR CASE MIGHT SUCK.
GENERAL STATISTICS DON'T MATTER IF YOUR SPECIFIC CASE SUCKS.
Even if the prosecutor might not be holding as many cards as he wants you to think he is, your case might still suck. Even if you do nothing but play the odds, the prosecutor is going to win enough cases to be scary. Only your own attorney can tell you if you have a realistic chance at walking away with an acquittal after trial. If your case does suck, a plea arrangement may be the best you can realistically hope for. Even odds of one in seven that you're going to be convicted of the charges brought against you should be taken seriously because prison is a Very Bad Place. If going there anyway is a functional inevitability, the right move is probably minimizing the amount of time you must spend there.
So if you real this post and later plead "not guilty" to a felony charge and it doesn't work out for you, don't come crying to me, pal. This blog post is not legal advice, it is only a generalized commentary about the law. It's a blog, for crying out loud. "Oh, I read on the internet that all you have to do is tell the D.A. to take a hike and you pretty much just automatically get off scot free!" That's not what I said -- I mused for a while about a somewhat surprising set of statistics, and then I said, "Your case might suck."
When your defense counsel looks at the case and tells you that you're better off with a plea arrangement, that's legal advice and she's giving it to you for a reason. That reason is not that she's been bribed by the prosecution, it's not that she's prejudiced against you, it's not that she's incompetent or scared to try a case, and it's not it gives her pleasure to suggest it to you. She's on your side. She's very likely the only friend you've got who's in any position to offer you any meaningful help. Treat her accordingly. Listen carefully to her advice, ask her intelligent questions about why she's giving you that advice, and seriously consider following it as dispassionately as you can.
August 23, 2010
ASTN Fantasy Projections On The Only Player Who Matters
[Intro Music.]
HOST: Welcome back to the All Sports Talk Network, for this week's Fantasy Bulletin. Today, we're talking Favre. Which is kind of like the last eighteen hours of our programming yesterday, only we've got some actual statistics generated in preseason play to run through our sophisticated forecast analysis computer models. Paulina the Projector, take it away!
PAULINA: Okay, thanks, Leonard! Folks, with no sign of antihistamine side-effects or slowness bothering Brett Favre in the four plays he participated in during this weekend's preseason game against San Francisco, sports fans everywhere are looking for clues about his upcoming performance. Favre, who was in on four plays, threw 1-1, for 13 yards and no touchdowns, had no interceptions, and was sacked once for a loss of ten yards. ASTN has a statistical projection available run by our own Eddie the Egghead, and the result is surprisingly mixed. Isn't that right, Eddie?
EDDIE: That's right, Paula. I ran ASTN's exclusive "straight projection" technique on Favre and the results are mixed. On the one hand, we project his performance to be on pace for a record year in the regular season. Barring an injury, Favre will have a stunning and career-high quarterback rating of 118.75, which will be the second-best in NFL history. Brett will finally lick his career-long tendency to interceptions; ASTN projects based on his performance against the Niners that Favre will throw no INT's this year. That's right - zero. You heard it here on ASTN first.
PAULINA: So I'm going to want to use my #1 overall pick to get Favre!
EDDIE: Not so fast, Paula-Paula. Maybe you girls are in a scoring league. If you are, I'd say look elsewhere.
HOST: Whoa! Favre is a touchdown machine, Eddie!
EDDIE: No, it's true. Favre threw no touchdowns at all despite having had four opportunities to do so. Based on how he played this weekend, we think that Favre will come in last place for touchdowns scored in the season among starting QBs. And, if you do draft him, beware of injuries! I know Favre has never missed a start yet in his twenty-year career, but based on what happened Sunday, Minnesota's offensive line will allow Brett to be sacked on roughly 25% of the plays, for an average of ten yards lost per sack. For some leagues, this could be devastating, and for everyone, this is a huge risk. Overall, I'm suggesting he's a fourth- or fifth-round pick in most leagues.
PAULINA: Huh! Interesting. So if you do draft Favre, you might want to handcuff him to Tarvaris Jackson, who we project will be available in the late rounds of your draft; could be a good value pickup. Got it, listeners? So, if I were in a scoring league, I'd be looking harder at Adrian Peterson than Favre based on what you're telling me, Edward.
EDDIE: That's probably a good way to go. We're projecting that 100% of Favre's passes will be to Peterson, based on the fact that 100% of Favre's passes were to him yesterday. Hey, when a guy's got the hot hands, what else are you going to do? Pick up some cheap points from the TD's, that's what.
PAULINA: But see, Eddie, I'm not in a scoring league. Touchdowns only count in the real game. What we care about in fantasy sports is yardage, right? Boo-ya! [EDDIE and PAULINA high five, turn to HOST.]
HOST: [Coldly] That's my thing, Paulina, are you stealing it from me like you stole Trevor? [Awkward pause. HOST turns to camera, speaks brightly.] Coming up, we've got more insider tips from ASTN's crack fantasy projection squad, including this week's Tough Call, brought to you by Stinkpretty Cologne for Men. Today's Tough Call: Defense--Browns or Lions? Stay tuned! [To PAULINA, sotto voce:] Homewrecker.
[Take-out music plays.]
HOST: Welcome back to the All Sports Talk Network, for this week's Fantasy Bulletin. Today, we're talking Favre. Which is kind of like the last eighteen hours of our programming yesterday, only we've got some actual statistics generated in preseason play to run through our sophisticated forecast analysis computer models. Paulina the Projector, take it away!
PAULINA: Okay, thanks, Leonard! Folks, with no sign of antihistamine side-effects or slowness bothering Brett Favre in the four plays he participated in during this weekend's preseason game against San Francisco, sports fans everywhere are looking for clues about his upcoming performance. Favre, who was in on four plays, threw 1-1, for 13 yards and no touchdowns, had no interceptions, and was sacked once for a loss of ten yards. ASTN has a statistical projection available run by our own Eddie the Egghead, and the result is surprisingly mixed. Isn't that right, Eddie?
EDDIE: That's right, Paula. I ran ASTN's exclusive "straight projection" technique on Favre and the results are mixed. On the one hand, we project his performance to be on pace for a record year in the regular season. Barring an injury, Favre will have a stunning and career-high quarterback rating of 118.75, which will be the second-best in NFL history. Brett will finally lick his career-long tendency to interceptions; ASTN projects based on his performance against the Niners that Favre will throw no INT's this year. That's right - zero. You heard it here on ASTN first.
PAULINA: So I'm going to want to use my #1 overall pick to get Favre!
EDDIE: Not so fast, Paula-Paula. Maybe you girls are in a scoring league. If you are, I'd say look elsewhere.
HOST: Whoa! Favre is a touchdown machine, Eddie!
EDDIE: No, it's true. Favre threw no touchdowns at all despite having had four opportunities to do so. Based on how he played this weekend, we think that Favre will come in last place for touchdowns scored in the season among starting QBs. And, if you do draft him, beware of injuries! I know Favre has never missed a start yet in his twenty-year career, but based on what happened Sunday, Minnesota's offensive line will allow Brett to be sacked on roughly 25% of the plays, for an average of ten yards lost per sack. For some leagues, this could be devastating, and for everyone, this is a huge risk. Overall, I'm suggesting he's a fourth- or fifth-round pick in most leagues.
PAULINA: Huh! Interesting. So if you do draft Favre, you might want to handcuff him to Tarvaris Jackson, who we project will be available in the late rounds of your draft; could be a good value pickup. Got it, listeners? So, if I were in a scoring league, I'd be looking harder at Adrian Peterson than Favre based on what you're telling me, Edward.
EDDIE: That's probably a good way to go. We're projecting that 100% of Favre's passes will be to Peterson, based on the fact that 100% of Favre's passes were to him yesterday. Hey, when a guy's got the hot hands, what else are you going to do? Pick up some cheap points from the TD's, that's what.
PAULINA: But see, Eddie, I'm not in a scoring league. Touchdowns only count in the real game. What we care about in fantasy sports is yardage, right? Boo-ya! [EDDIE and PAULINA high five, turn to HOST.]
HOST: [Coldly] That's my thing, Paulina, are you stealing it from me like you stole Trevor? [Awkward pause. HOST turns to camera, speaks brightly.] Coming up, we've got more insider tips from ASTN's crack fantasy projection squad, including this week's Tough Call, brought to you by Stinkpretty Cologne for Men. Today's Tough Call: Defense--Browns or Lions? Stay tuned! [To PAULINA, sotto voce:] Homewrecker.
[Take-out music plays.]
August 11, 2010
This Legend Looks To Have Some Reality
One of the "facts" being thrown around in the swirling debate about immigration is the phenomenon of "anchor babies." The legend is that an illegal immigrant will come to the U.S. and have a baby here. Because that baby is born within the geographical limits of the United States, the Fourteenth Amendment makes the baby automatically a citizen. The parent is then typically allowed to stay in the U.S. to raise the baby, because we are a compassionate people and will neither exile a U.S. citizen based on the accident of her parentage nor split up a parent from her child. Thus, the illegal immigrant is tolerated and remains in the country despite having broken the law to come here.
As this concept flew around the political landscape the past couple of weeks at fever pitch, I wondered to myself, "Is this real? Is there enough of this happening to worry about in reality?" I looked and looked and couldn't find statistics for it anywhere. Tonight, though, it hit the front page of memeorandum and my question is answered: yes, there is some meat on those bones.
According to a reputable polling agency, in 2008, roughly 8% of all babies born in the United States are born to parents who are in the country without legal authorization to be here. Are these "anchor babies"? The result of their birth may be that this is what they are. I still question whether there is a massive intentionality behind the parents of these babies to have the children so as to secure their residence in the U.S. It seems more likely to me that the parents came here, hooked up, and boom, there's a baby which is perhaps not unwelcome but also was not exactly planned for, either. As the Pew Forum report points out, immigrants have a higher birthrate than citizens; as it does not point out but which ought to be fairly obvious, most of them come from heavily religious (generally RCC-dominated) cultures where contraception and abortion are discouraged, and education not valued or available. These things contribute to higher birth rates. They also contribute to large families; how many of those 340,000 babies born each year were the first baby born to the undocumented immigrant parents?
It's also worth nothing that in the same report, 16% of all babies born in the U.S. were born to legal immigrants. That's nearly one in four babies born in the U.S. being born to non-citizen parents. This confirms something I have long said, which is that as a nation we are dependent on immigration for our long-term survival; if you eliminate one-quarter of the live births from our demographics, our population would suddenly be shrinking very rapidly. So for that reason, even though this is far from a majority, it is a large enough number that I think it deserves recognition.
Legal immigrants strike me as being much more likely to have intentionally conceived and given birth here for the purpose of creating an "anchor baby," because these tend to be better-educated people, and people who do not need to hide from the system because they are in compliance with it, and therefore have easier access to medical care, including contraception and abortion, as well as a higher likelihood to have a job and therefore the economic wherewithal to predictably provide for their children. Legal immigrants also strike me as more likely to attempt naturalization than immigrants here illegally. I've no proof of any of the suppositions I offer in this paragraph, by the way; these just seem like plausible conjectures to me.
I'm still not entirely buying into the "anchor babies" legend, because I'm not convinced that there is the systematic sort of intent that moatdigger politicians are insinuating is at play. The parents come here for economic reasons, not for the purpose of having babies in our hospitals. Nor do I think it is fair to attribute a deep understanding of our legal or Constitutional system to them -- they came here looking for jobs, nothing more. But what I do acknowledge is that there is indeed evidence that a significant number of babies being born in the U.S. every year to parents who, according to the black letter of the law, ought not to be here.
The question is, are we so offended and scared by this phenomenon that we are willing to amend our Constitution to prevent it from happening again? I say, let's have more citizen children of legal immigrants. Keep America as the Cadillac destination point for ambitious, and in many cases talented, people from around the world. Get their children integrated into our society, make Americans out of them, and we will be stronger and richer for it.
As this concept flew around the political landscape the past couple of weeks at fever pitch, I wondered to myself, "Is this real? Is there enough of this happening to worry about in reality?" I looked and looked and couldn't find statistics for it anywhere. Tonight, though, it hit the front page of memeorandum and my question is answered: yes, there is some meat on those bones.
According to a reputable polling agency, in 2008, roughly 8% of all babies born in the United States are born to parents who are in the country without legal authorization to be here. Are these "anchor babies"? The result of their birth may be that this is what they are. I still question whether there is a massive intentionality behind the parents of these babies to have the children so as to secure their residence in the U.S. It seems more likely to me that the parents came here, hooked up, and boom, there's a baby which is perhaps not unwelcome but also was not exactly planned for, either. As the Pew Forum report points out, immigrants have a higher birthrate than citizens; as it does not point out but which ought to be fairly obvious, most of them come from heavily religious (generally RCC-dominated) cultures where contraception and abortion are discouraged, and education not valued or available. These things contribute to higher birth rates. They also contribute to large families; how many of those 340,000 babies born each year were the first baby born to the undocumented immigrant parents?
It's also worth nothing that in the same report, 16% of all babies born in the U.S. were born to legal immigrants. That's nearly one in four babies born in the U.S. being born to non-citizen parents. This confirms something I have long said, which is that as a nation we are dependent on immigration for our long-term survival; if you eliminate one-quarter of the live births from our demographics, our population would suddenly be shrinking very rapidly. So for that reason, even though this is far from a majority, it is a large enough number that I think it deserves recognition.
Legal immigrants strike me as being much more likely to have intentionally conceived and given birth here for the purpose of creating an "anchor baby," because these tend to be better-educated people, and people who do not need to hide from the system because they are in compliance with it, and therefore have easier access to medical care, including contraception and abortion, as well as a higher likelihood to have a job and therefore the economic wherewithal to predictably provide for their children. Legal immigrants also strike me as more likely to attempt naturalization than immigrants here illegally. I've no proof of any of the suppositions I offer in this paragraph, by the way; these just seem like plausible conjectures to me.
I'm still not entirely buying into the "anchor babies" legend, because I'm not convinced that there is the systematic sort of intent that moatdigger politicians are insinuating is at play. The parents come here for economic reasons, not for the purpose of having babies in our hospitals. Nor do I think it is fair to attribute a deep understanding of our legal or Constitutional system to them -- they came here looking for jobs, nothing more. But what I do acknowledge is that there is indeed evidence that a significant number of babies being born in the U.S. every year to parents who, according to the black letter of the law, ought not to be here.
The question is, are we so offended and scared by this phenomenon that we are willing to amend our Constitution to prevent it from happening again? I say, let's have more citizen children of legal immigrants. Keep America as the Cadillac destination point for ambitious, and in many cases talented, people from around the world. Get their children integrated into our society, make Americans out of them, and we will be stronger and richer for it.
February 27, 2010
But I Don't Think Of Myself As Liberal!
And here I was today beginning to question the limits of my intelligence. Not so fast. TL!
December 19, 2009
Weekend Weirdness, Volume X
To begin this tenth edition of Weekend Weirdness, I give you tens.
Tens of weird commercials.
Okay, "ten half minutes" is really "five minutes" but that didn't fit into my "ten" motif and I wasn't going to watch that chicken for ten whole minutes. But, I've got a graphical depiction of at least ten ways you can die in the United States, sorted by county.
And ten hot people involved in the Tiger Woods sex scandal. I don't care what they say about the Perkins waitress, I think she's cute. Bonus in the link -- these guys think every song Sarah McLachlan has ever written is about college football which, if you're obsessed with college football, might not be such a great stretch. (See, it's "Fumbling Towards Ecstasy," right? Her biggest single is all about "Possession." How about them lyrics -- "Hold on to yourself, 'cause this is gonna hurt like hell" could easily be a threat from a linebacker to a quarterback.)
Tens of weird commercials.
Okay, "ten half minutes" is really "five minutes" but that didn't fit into my "ten" motif and I wasn't going to watch that chicken for ten whole minutes. But, I've got a graphical depiction of at least ten ways you can die in the United States, sorted by county.
And ten hot people involved in the Tiger Woods sex scandal. I don't care what they say about the Perkins waitress, I think she's cute. Bonus in the link -- these guys think every song Sarah McLachlan has ever written is about college football which, if you're obsessed with college football, might not be such a great stretch. (See, it's "Fumbling Towards Ecstasy," right? Her biggest single is all about "Possession." How about them lyrics -- "Hold on to yourself, 'cause this is gonna hurt like hell" could easily be a threat from a linebacker to a quarterback.)
November 16, 2009
Odd Sourcing by ABC News
First, and perhaps most importantly, it's good work by ABC News to find all the massive B.S. that you can read about at Recovery.gov -- relatively large amounts of money spent in congressional districts that do not exist, jobs saved that did not seem to ever exist in the first place, and so on. Charitably, the "9th Congressional District" in Arizona (Arizona only has 8 districts) may refer to something other than one particular Congressional district, or some other geographical division of Arizona, and everything is called a "Congressional District" because someone putting together the otherwise rather-slick website doesn't know the difference between a Congressional District and some other kind of governmental unit.
But what's really odd is that the ABC News story appears to be replete with links -- but almost all of those links are to other ABC News stories. Very few of them are to any kind of particularized source material and the only link to the actual government website containing bogus data is to the front page of the website. You have to drill down and do your own research on that website -- which is actually pretty non-intuitive and difficult to find -- in order to verify the information that ABC is reporting. (Here, for instance, is all the money being spent in Arizona, sorted by district, which reports a lot of non-existent districts.)
When I comment on something, I try to include direct, supporting links. When you click on a link here, you'll typically get a direct link to my source material. That's kind of how blogs work; because we bloggers don't write and publish bibliographies but the convention is to link to what you're basing your commentary on. ABC News, however, seems to prefer to refer almost exclusively to itself -- even when the actual source material is one hyperlink away.
So, here's a major "bullshit!" call out to recovery.gov, and here's a "whafuck?" call out to ABC News.
But what's really odd is that the ABC News story appears to be replete with links -- but almost all of those links are to other ABC News stories. Very few of them are to any kind of particularized source material and the only link to the actual government website containing bogus data is to the front page of the website. You have to drill down and do your own research on that website -- which is actually pretty non-intuitive and difficult to find -- in order to verify the information that ABC is reporting. (Here, for instance, is all the money being spent in Arizona, sorted by district, which reports a lot of non-existent districts.)
When I comment on something, I try to include direct, supporting links. When you click on a link here, you'll typically get a direct link to my source material. That's kind of how blogs work; because we bloggers don't write and publish bibliographies but the convention is to link to what you're basing your commentary on. ABC News, however, seems to prefer to refer almost exclusively to itself -- even when the actual source material is one hyperlink away.
So, here's a major "bullshit!" call out to recovery.gov, and here's a "whafuck?" call out to ABC News.
September 30, 2009
Glenn Beck Spews A Densely-Packed Set Of Hysterical Lies
Why has America fallen into such desperate and horrible straits? Oh, yeah, that's right, it's the atheists' fault. Or, as Doug Mataconis puts it, "Yea, it has nothing to do with all those religious people who’ve, you know, actually been in charge of the country all these years." But a snappy response is not enough. Beck deserves a thorough takedown for this:
And I'm the guy who's going to give it to him. Glenn Beck, you are a lying, hysterical, fearmongering, pandering liar. Who lies in order to gain ratings and who lies in order to whip people into a needless and destructive political frenzy and who just plain lies.
1. "In God We Trust" appears on all the money, you lying sack of shit. I defy you -- I challenge you to swear to forfeit on that immortal soul that you believe in -- to produce a single piece of U.S. tender in circulation that does not contain, somewhere on it, the phrase "In God We Trust."
2. The Decalogue is allowed in courthouses. Sometimes -- when it's part of an artistic display about the law and history. We are, on our public buildings, allowed to acknowledge the role of the Ten Commandments as part of our cultural and legal history. When the Decalogue is offered for religious indoctrination, however, that violates something inherently American, specifically, the Establishment Clause of the Constitution. You should read it sometime.
3. You can pray in school. You just can't force someone else to pray in school along with you. Big difference. You also can't pray in a manner that disrupts normal class activity. But yes, you can pray in school.
4. "Can't sing Christmas carols"? Huh? What court, what political institution, what police officer, what legislation, what rule, what anything stops you from singing a Christmas Carol where and when you want to? You're just a crazed, frothing LIAR, Glenn Beck.
5. Religious "nones" on the rise, meaning more Americans are not identifying with any particular religion -- even becoming outright atheists? (Note that responding "none" to a demographic survey about religion does not mean one is identifying as an atheist.) Aren't these Americans who have the Constitutional* right to be atheists if they want? Why, then, do you object to Americans using their freedom, Glenn Beck? What is it about liberty that offends you so very much?
6. To suggest that atheists have a "void" in their lives is condescending in the extreme. Glenn Beck, it's damn good odds that you do not worship Quezacoatl. With what do you fill the void left by the absence of worship of the winged moon serpent? You don't feel a void in your life caused by your rejection of the divinity of Osiris. You and I are exactly alike in that respect -- my list of mythological deities who I do not worship just has one additional name on it than yours. Trust me, there's no void. The real question is, with what does Glenn Beck fill the gigantic, gaping void in his ass? The answer is, "his head, and it's high time he pulled it out."
7. To further suggest that atheists fill the "void" in their lives with "power, career, money, celebrities, politics, government" is even more ridiculous. I'll grant you that I'm an atheist who is interested in politics -- but most atheists I know aren't. Almost no atheist I've ever met is is in the least bit concerned about celebrity gossip, by the way -- everyone I've ever met who is deeply interested in celebrity gossip has also been, or at least claimed to be, religious. "Put your faith in government, not God" is a message no atheist is preaching. Why? Atheists who are also politically liberal tend to support the current Administration -- because they are liberal, not because they are atheists. Atheists who are politically conservative (or, much more likely these days since conservatism has become so identified with religiosity, libertarian) tend to oppose the current Administration -- because they are not liberal, again not because of their religion. Almost like religious belief and politics have no logical link to one another. Hmm, makes you think, doesn't it?
8. "Why do you think we are as powerful as we are, or as we have been?" Several answers here, Glenn, which need to be examined together. Exhibit A: Geography. It's very difficult to invade the United States because to do so, you'd have to either have a military foothold in Canada or Mexico, or do an amphibious landing on one of two heavily-urbanized coasts. Exhibit B: Natural resources. Our borders contain fertile farmlands, ample mineral resources, petroleum, and at one time, vast stretches of timber. (If you want to give Jehovah credit for that, fine, but you should also note that He also gave those blessings to places like sub-Saharan Africa, China and Russia which do not enjoy the same levels of power or prosperity we do.) Exhibit C: A government founded on Enlightenment principles of republican democracy and individual rights, coupled with a strong political commitment to those ideals throughout our history, creating a sociological environment in which individual prosperity flourishes and collective prosperity flourishes as a result. Exhibit D: We won both world wars of the twentieth century -- in part because we weren't invaded through a combination of smart diplomacy, a strong Navy, and the benefits of our geographic isolation from belligerent nations -- and therefore unlike every other nation in the world, did not have our industrial plant and basic infrastructure wiped out by enemy action. Jehovah, even if He exists, has little to do with any of this -- the ebb and flow of history and the accidents of geography do.
9. When he asks, "What did we do different than other countries?" Beck cannot be seriously suggesting that other nations throughout history have been irreligious. European nations fought 150 years of war with one another over religion. He can't seriously be suggesting that places like Iran are irreligious. (Oh, right, they're worshiping the wrong God. Er, that is, they're worshiping the same God but they call Him "Allah" instead of "Jehovah" so that's where they went wrong; they ought to use English because if it was good enough for Jesus, English is good enough for them Iranians too.)
10. And that reference to the "Creator" in the Declaration of Independence -- who, exactly would that be? It's not like Jefferson didn't know about the Christian diety when he wrote it. T.J. could just as easily have written "All men are endowed by God with certain inalienable rights" but he used the phrase "their Creator" instead. But even if we were to concede the non-obvious contention that Jefferson was referring to Jehovah, this clause still falls far short of Beck's characterization that it "recognizes the authority of God." At best, it recognizes that a "Creator" of some sort exists.
11. Nor does the failure of other countries to adopt some version of this language mean that they necessarily believe that human rights are dispensed by the government. But they -- like the United States -- recognize that human rights have to be handled and adjudicated by the government, by the courts. Human rights do not exist in an anarchy.
12. "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" is, and always was, a song explicitly intended to meld elements of military glory and religious imagery. Which you can enjoy if you want. I'll concede that the melody and the meter are well-crafted. But it's not the national anthem and I'd resist efforts to make it the national anthem. Question: since the song refers explicitly to Christ and a variety of other New Testament images (like Lilies of the Valley and the millennial apocalypse) does that mean that Jewish people can't enjoy it, too? Perhaps just as important -- do you think atheists were the ones who corrupted this song in this manner? What proof do you have to back that up? Because my money is going to be on the side of the betting table that says the teachers and school officials responsible for that creepy musical interlude were Christians.
Now, the kids singing and chanting about Obama is really creepy, and whoever chose to pirate the sycophantic Obama-worship on traditional American songs thus compounded upon the inherent creepiness of children singing songs to praise to political leaders. Nor will I defend it or the equally delusional school officials who thought it was a good idea to instruct schoolchildren to do this. But what that has to do with why atheists are evil, though, I haven't a clue.
If I were in Congress, would I try to take "In God We Trust" off the money? Yep. If I were on the Supreme Court, would I vote against public displays of the Decalogue in almost all cases. Probably (I can't be certain unless I had been briefed on a case). I say that because a governmental display of religious iconography is inherently the government promoting religion in favor of non-religion, and from my perspective that violates the Establishment Clause. But to get my way, I'd have to convince other people that I'm right about those ideas -- through the legal or political processes. That is the nature of the system. That system of laws is the distilled essence of America. And it didn't come from God -- it came from a collection of lawyers, steeped in the radical philosophy of the eighteenth-century Enlightenment, who rendered very good service indeed to their new nation when they implementing it.
You have a Constitutional* right to vomit all of this nonsense, Glenn Beck. And I have the Constitutional right to call it what it is: five solid minutes of hateful, fearmongering, bigoted lies.
* Some would even say "God-given" although I say God has nothing to do with the Constitution -- and I have the text of the Constitution itself to support me in that contention.
1. "In God We Trust" appears on all the money, you lying sack of shit. I defy you -- I challenge you to swear to forfeit on that immortal soul that you believe in -- to produce a single piece of U.S. tender in circulation that does not contain, somewhere on it, the phrase "In God We Trust."
2. The Decalogue is allowed in courthouses. Sometimes -- when it's part of an artistic display about the law and history. We are, on our public buildings, allowed to acknowledge the role of the Ten Commandments as part of our cultural and legal history. When the Decalogue is offered for religious indoctrination, however, that violates something inherently American, specifically, the Establishment Clause of the Constitution. You should read it sometime.
3. You can pray in school. You just can't force someone else to pray in school along with you. Big difference. You also can't pray in a manner that disrupts normal class activity. But yes, you can pray in school.
4. "Can't sing Christmas carols"? Huh? What court, what political institution, what police officer, what legislation, what rule, what anything stops you from singing a Christmas Carol where and when you want to? You're just a crazed, frothing LIAR, Glenn Beck.
5. Religious "nones" on the rise, meaning more Americans are not identifying with any particular religion -- even becoming outright atheists? (Note that responding "none" to a demographic survey about religion does not mean one is identifying as an atheist.) Aren't these Americans who have the Constitutional* right to be atheists if they want? Why, then, do you object to Americans using their freedom, Glenn Beck? What is it about liberty that offends you so very much?
6. To suggest that atheists have a "void" in their lives is condescending in the extreme. Glenn Beck, it's damn good odds that you do not worship Quezacoatl. With what do you fill the void left by the absence of worship of the winged moon serpent? You don't feel a void in your life caused by your rejection of the divinity of Osiris. You and I are exactly alike in that respect -- my list of mythological deities who I do not worship just has one additional name on it than yours. Trust me, there's no void. The real question is, with what does Glenn Beck fill the gigantic, gaping void in his ass? The answer is, "his head, and it's high time he pulled it out."
7. To further suggest that atheists fill the "void" in their lives with "power, career, money, celebrities, politics, government" is even more ridiculous. I'll grant you that I'm an atheist who is interested in politics -- but most atheists I know aren't. Almost no atheist I've ever met is is in the least bit concerned about celebrity gossip, by the way -- everyone I've ever met who is deeply interested in celebrity gossip has also been, or at least claimed to be, religious. "Put your faith in government, not God" is a message no atheist is preaching. Why? Atheists who are also politically liberal tend to support the current Administration -- because they are liberal, not because they are atheists. Atheists who are politically conservative (or, much more likely these days since conservatism has become so identified with religiosity, libertarian) tend to oppose the current Administration -- because they are not liberal, again not because of their religion. Almost like religious belief and politics have no logical link to one another. Hmm, makes you think, doesn't it?
8. "Why do you think we are as powerful as we are, or as we have been?" Several answers here, Glenn, which need to be examined together. Exhibit A: Geography. It's very difficult to invade the United States because to do so, you'd have to either have a military foothold in Canada or Mexico, or do an amphibious landing on one of two heavily-urbanized coasts. Exhibit B: Natural resources. Our borders contain fertile farmlands, ample mineral resources, petroleum, and at one time, vast stretches of timber. (If you want to give Jehovah credit for that, fine, but you should also note that He also gave those blessings to places like sub-Saharan Africa, China and Russia which do not enjoy the same levels of power or prosperity we do.) Exhibit C: A government founded on Enlightenment principles of republican democracy and individual rights, coupled with a strong political commitment to those ideals throughout our history, creating a sociological environment in which individual prosperity flourishes and collective prosperity flourishes as a result. Exhibit D: We won both world wars of the twentieth century -- in part because we weren't invaded through a combination of smart diplomacy, a strong Navy, and the benefits of our geographic isolation from belligerent nations -- and therefore unlike every other nation in the world, did not have our industrial plant and basic infrastructure wiped out by enemy action. Jehovah, even if He exists, has little to do with any of this -- the ebb and flow of history and the accidents of geography do.
9. When he asks, "What did we do different than other countries?" Beck cannot be seriously suggesting that other nations throughout history have been irreligious. European nations fought 150 years of war with one another over religion. He can't seriously be suggesting that places like Iran are irreligious. (Oh, right, they're worshiping the wrong God. Er, that is, they're worshiping the same God but they call Him "Allah" instead of "Jehovah" so that's where they went wrong; they ought to use English because if it was good enough for Jesus, English is good enough for them Iranians too.)
10. And that reference to the "Creator" in the Declaration of Independence -- who, exactly would that be? It's not like Jefferson didn't know about the Christian diety when he wrote it. T.J. could just as easily have written "All men are endowed by God with certain inalienable rights" but he used the phrase "their Creator" instead. But even if we were to concede the non-obvious contention that Jefferson was referring to Jehovah, this clause still falls far short of Beck's characterization that it "recognizes the authority of God." At best, it recognizes that a "Creator" of some sort exists.
11. Nor does the failure of other countries to adopt some version of this language mean that they necessarily believe that human rights are dispensed by the government. But they -- like the United States -- recognize that human rights have to be handled and adjudicated by the government, by the courts. Human rights do not exist in an anarchy.
12. "The Battle Hymn of the Republic" is, and always was, a song explicitly intended to meld elements of military glory and religious imagery. Which you can enjoy if you want. I'll concede that the melody and the meter are well-crafted. But it's not the national anthem and I'd resist efforts to make it the national anthem. Question: since the song refers explicitly to Christ and a variety of other New Testament images (like Lilies of the Valley and the millennial apocalypse) does that mean that Jewish people can't enjoy it, too? Perhaps just as important -- do you think atheists were the ones who corrupted this song in this manner? What proof do you have to back that up? Because my money is going to be on the side of the betting table that says the teachers and school officials responsible for that creepy musical interlude were Christians.
Now, the kids singing and chanting about Obama is really creepy, and whoever chose to pirate the sycophantic Obama-worship on traditional American songs thus compounded upon the inherent creepiness of children singing songs to praise to political leaders. Nor will I defend it or the equally delusional school officials who thought it was a good idea to instruct schoolchildren to do this. But what that has to do with why atheists are evil, though, I haven't a clue.
If I were in Congress, would I try to take "In God We Trust" off the money? Yep. If I were on the Supreme Court, would I vote against public displays of the Decalogue in almost all cases. Probably (I can't be certain unless I had been briefed on a case). I say that because a governmental display of religious iconography is inherently the government promoting religion in favor of non-religion, and from my perspective that violates the Establishment Clause. But to get my way, I'd have to convince other people that I'm right about those ideas -- through the legal or political processes. That is the nature of the system. That system of laws is the distilled essence of America. And it didn't come from God -- it came from a collection of lawyers, steeped in the radical philosophy of the eighteenth-century Enlightenment, who rendered very good service indeed to their new nation when they implementing it.
You have a Constitutional* right to vomit all of this nonsense, Glenn Beck. And I have the Constitutional right to call it what it is: five solid minutes of hateful, fearmongering, bigoted lies.
* Some would even say "God-given" although I say God has nothing to do with the Constitution -- and I have the text of the Constitution itself to support me in that contention.
March 27, 2009
Jerks Lose: An Informal Statistical Musing
Before proceeding, however, squeamish Readers should be aware that I use the word "asshole" (or some variant thereof) with astonishing frequency in this post: a total of thirty-three times, including in this sentence and in the footnote.
Now, the issue of statistically anomalous results weighs on my mind today because I served as a pro tem judge in small claims court this morning. I fear that now that I've done this a few times, I'm sliding down the path I've seen so many other pro tem judges slide down -- deciding cases based not on the merits but rather on who I think is the bigger asshole. As I walked out of court this afternoon, I ran through all of the cases in my mind and realized that in every contested matter, I had ruled against the bigger asshole -- sometimes after having to make a difficult judgment call as to which of the two parties was worse.
Generally, you can see that assholes lose and nice people win -- in one case, the nice person admitted liability but disputed the amount owed, and prevailed as to that argument. Because there was a net judgment againt the nice person I rate that as a loss, but very close to the center axis. (The other party in that case was not a huge asshole, by the way, just a moderate one.) But the trend is pretty clear.
Now, in a couple of cases, I also worry if I get the law wrong; it's frighteningly easy to forget the rules about bad check penalties, late feed, contractors working without written contracts, and fiduciary duties while up on the bench and after three hours of dealing with whatever drifted into court that morning. With each of those cases, I realize later that I did reach the right result, but maybe I didn't get there in the best possible way and only figured out the right way to get there after the fact. Point is, it's harder than it looks up there on the bench.
Certainly, it's easier to say, "Who's the bigger asshole here?" and go on that basis, even if you don't know the law on that particular subject. But that's not justice; if the asshole is right on the merits, the asshole should win, despite his monumental display of assholery. And the point of this exercise is to resolve my self-doubt in my own abilities. Because I have taken it as a given that you might be an asshole, but if you're right, you'll win anyway.
If being an asshole has nothing to do with being right, then statistically, the asshole is going to be right about half the time. But today, assholes had a zero percent success record in my court. Non-assholes and/or assholes who weren't quite as obnoxious as the other parties, did extremely well, or at least got a comfortable slice of baby. I heard about ten cases this morning and that seems to me to be getting into enough statistical significance that I've got to wonder about one of the three main dangers of comparing anticipated results with actual statistics.
I know I ought to be getting the law right; sometimes, though, the cases call on me to pull something out of my memory banks that hasn't been touched since law school. I ought to be strictly applying burdens of proof and finding some objective basis for evaluating the credibility of parties who simply contradict one another. Credibility is not the same thing as a good attitude and just because someone has strong emotions does not mean that they are telling me the truth. At best, it means they believe they are telling me their truths. At worst, it means they are putting on a convincing show -- which does happen sometimes. I am haunted by self-doubt, though, that something else, something very subtle, is working just below the surface of my consciousness when I sit in judgment of other peoples' disputes. Because it seems a little too neat and clean that the biggest asshole loses every time.
Or maybe I'm just reacting to all the strong emotions that get vented. One thing I can be confident about -- I tell them all to try and settle their cases because they have a 50% or better chance of walking out of my courtroom unhappy. If they don't follow that advice, that's not my fault.
So this leaves me with a few possibilities:
- Sample Bias: A disproportionate number of small claims cases as opposed to regular disputes have at least one asshole as a party (either plaintiff or defendant).* Therefore, I'm going to see more assholes in court than I would in the general population. "You have a dispute" + "You are an asshole" = "Your case goes to court instead of settling." This charmingly suggests that being an asshole has nothing to do with being right or wrong; alas, it does nothing to explain why assholes lost nearly every time. But there does exist the possibility that this is simply an unrepresentative sample of data.
- Evaluation Bias: I might be applying the law correctly, and judging that people who do not know the law or otherwise fail to appreciate the incorrectness of their position are doing so not because they are ignorant but rather because they are assholes. Thus, my evaluation of the parties as assholes is colored because of my evaluation that their cases lack merit. In other words, "Getting the case wrong and therefore losing" leads necessarily to "The judge thinks you're an asshole."
- Incorrect Prediction: Perhaps my hypothesis, that assholery has nothing to do with the merits of one's case, is incorrect. There could be a causal relationship, meaning that assholes are more likely to get the law and the facts wrong, and therefore present bad cases in court which wind up losing. This is the opposite of theory #2; it would be diagrammed "You're actually an asshole" --> "You make a mistake in evaluating your position that causes you to present a loser of a case."
- Evaluator Bias: Maybe I'm the asshole here. If so, then I'm awarding favorable results to parties whom I like and unfavorable results to parties whom I dislike. We'd diagram that as "The judge thinks you're an asshole" --> "You lose."
My self-doubt arises from possibility #4. I want to do a good job and be fair as a judge, and if #4 is true, obviously that is not happening. But at the same time, a negative correction (deliberately giving extra weight to evidence and argument offered by assholes) is very clearly not the answer as well as distasteful. I'm not entirely sure what the answer is -- and I guess I need to first determine whether the result I observed today is really an anomaly at all.
I must ponder this issue further before I take the bench again.
* A corollary to this theory is that the presence of an asshole in a dispute lowers the chances that it will resolve before trial. This corollary hypothesis strongly resonates with empirical data collected from both my law practice and my experience as a pro tem. This theory also suggests a converse -- when both parties are nice people, they find a way to work things out, and therefore a lower number of cases that I hear will involve nice people on both sides. I know of no way to test this converse theory, since it does not appear to be either falsifiable or measurable -- experience indicates that there is at least one asshole involved in pretty much every case I see either as a pro tem judge or as an attorney. Opinions as to the identity of that person on a case-to-case basis are obviously quite likely to differ.
I must ponder this issue further before I take the bench again.
* A corollary to this theory is that the presence of an asshole in a dispute lowers the chances that it will resolve before trial. This corollary hypothesis strongly resonates with empirical data collected from both my law practice and my experience as a pro tem. This theory also suggests a converse -- when both parties are nice people, they find a way to work things out, and therefore a lower number of cases that I hear will involve nice people on both sides. I know of no way to test this converse theory, since it does not appear to be either falsifiable or measurable -- experience indicates that there is at least one asshole involved in pretty much every case I see either as a pro tem judge or as an attorney. Opinions as to the identity of that person on a case-to-case basis are obviously quite likely to differ.
March 9, 2009
Decline Of Religion In America Much Overhyped
Religious and atheist blogs and websites will have much to twitter about today as the results of the new American Religious Identification Survey is released. This is a telephone survey of a sample size somewhere around fifty-five thousand people, which is well more than is needed for a deep, low margin error. It is published under the aegis of Trinity College of Hartford Connecticut, which apparently has some really goos press agents. The survey has been done twice before, in 1990 and 2001, and it caused a lot of buzz back then, too.
The view you'd get from the headlines: more and more Americans are becoming non-religious. The percentage of poll respondents who identified "none" as their religion rose from 11% to 15.1%, and is now the third-largest of all categories, behind only Catholics (25.1%) and Baptists (15.8%).
The quick, superficial takeaway: "Oh noes, the atheists are gaining and religious folks are losing!" As if religious identification were a game of Parcheesi that is even capable of being won or lost.
The view from within the numbers: Focusing only on changes in percentage, for instance the way USA Today does, ignores the fact that while many denominations have experienced modest declines in percentages of the overall population, they have gained in overall numbers. If you're a churchgoing American, you've probably not noticed a large decline in the numbers of people you see joining you at services every Sunday (or Saturday or even Friday or Wednesday depending on your religion). That's because in raw numbers, there are more bodies in more churches than ever before in American history.
And it's also not fair to say that people who answered "None" when asked what their religion is are necessarily atheists or agnostics. What this suggests to me is that these people do not think about the issue of religion very much. That category of people is still quite small -- subgroups within "None" are "atheists" and "agnostics." Now, those groups have made gains even more remarkable than the headlines -- agnostics rose from .5% to .9% of the overall population, and atheists rose from .4% to .7%. But we're still only talking about a very small minority here.
That's not to say that the social scientists who actually took and published the survey ignored the issue of population expansion. Far from it. And that's probably where the real action is -- explaining the combination of population growth with shifts in overall religious identification. They did that, but that's not where the publicity is resting for some reason. They point out that "none" was the biggest beneficiary from population grown, accounting for more than a third of new entrants into the universe being sampled since the first survey, taken nearly a generation ago.
Now, even this is an incomplete picture. Population expansion comes from a few sources -- births offsetting deaths and immigration being the two largest. Considering only birth-to-death ratio, the USA is growing at the rate of 1.71 people per 1,000 every year. This is greater than replacement rate, but only barely. The rest is coming from immigration. It strikes me as unlikely that nearly four in ten immigrants to the US over the past nineteen years have been irreligious people. One of the principal reasons people immigrate to the US is to gain a degree of religious freedom that they do not enjoy in their native lands.
So this suggests to me that the growth in people who do not self-identify with a religious group is happening from people who were born here and who formerly did identify with religious groups. In other words, the number of people who have abandoned their religious is growing, at a rate I cannot determine with the ARIS statistics, but in proportions large enough to account for a growth of four and a half million people in the last seven years. This makes intuitive sense to me. But then again, it would.
Now, there's something else that jumps out at me. The ARIS survey lists the overall universe size at 228 million. But that's not even close -- 306 million is the real number. The discrepancy came from the fact that the universe the survey measures is adult Americans, not Americans overall. This means that there are 78 million Americans under the age of 18, just a little bit more than one-quarter of the overall population.
Those children are being raised, in overwhelming numbers, by at least one parent and their parents are, to varying degrees, passing along their religious preferences to their children. Certainly there are lots of stories out there about children choosing different religious paths than their parents. But these stories are exceptional and full of conflict precisely because they are out of the norm. Most parents succeed in transmitting their religious beliefs to their children -- often even when they intentionally set out to not do so.
So the piece of the puzzle, the one that lets us use these numbers to see what is in store for us, is what percentage of children are growing up in religious households? My suspicion is that religious people tend to have larger families. Their churches provide support networks, many of the religions prohibit the use of contraceptives or other family planning techniques, and I seem to recall seeing some demographics that support the conclusion from elsewhere but I've no time to look them up at the moment.
The question, then, is whether irreligion is at some kind of a generational high-water mark right now. The answer to that question depends on why it is that this significant number of people are choosing to abandon their religions. That is not something that the survey answers, and to get a really good understanding, requires both quantitative as well as qualitative data.
The view you'd get from the headlines: more and more Americans are becoming non-religious. The percentage of poll respondents who identified "none" as their religion rose from 11% to 15.1%, and is now the third-largest of all categories, behind only Catholics (25.1%) and Baptists (15.8%).
The quick, superficial takeaway: "Oh noes, the atheists are gaining and religious folks are losing!" As if religious identification were a game of Parcheesi that is even capable of being won or lost.
The view from within the numbers: Focusing only on changes in percentage, for instance the way USA Today does, ignores the fact that while many denominations have experienced modest declines in percentages of the overall population, they have gained in overall numbers. If you're a churchgoing American, you've probably not noticed a large decline in the numbers of people you see joining you at services every Sunday (or Saturday or even Friday or Wednesday depending on your religion). That's because in raw numbers, there are more bodies in more churches than ever before in American history.
And it's also not fair to say that people who answered "None" when asked what their religion is are necessarily atheists or agnostics. What this suggests to me is that these people do not think about the issue of religion very much. That category of people is still quite small -- subgroups within "None" are "atheists" and "agnostics." Now, those groups have made gains even more remarkable than the headlines -- agnostics rose from .5% to .9% of the overall population, and atheists rose from .4% to .7%. But we're still only talking about a very small minority here.
Now, even this is an incomplete picture. Population expansion comes from a few sources -- births offsetting deaths and immigration being the two largest. Considering only birth-to-death ratio, the USA is growing at the rate of 1.71 people per 1,000 every year. This is greater than replacement rate, but only barely. The rest is coming from immigration. It strikes me as unlikely that nearly four in ten immigrants to the US over the past nineteen years have been irreligious people. One of the principal reasons people immigrate to the US is to gain a degree of religious freedom that they do not enjoy in their native lands.
So this suggests to me that the growth in people who do not self-identify with a religious group is happening from people who were born here and who formerly did identify with religious groups. In other words, the number of people who have abandoned their religious is growing, at a rate I cannot determine with the ARIS statistics, but in proportions large enough to account for a growth of four and a half million people in the last seven years. This makes intuitive sense to me. But then again, it would.
Now, there's something else that jumps out at me. The ARIS survey lists the overall universe size at 228 million. But that's not even close -- 306 million is the real number. The discrepancy came from the fact that the universe the survey measures is adult Americans, not Americans overall. This means that there are 78 million Americans under the age of 18, just a little bit more than one-quarter of the overall population.
So the piece of the puzzle, the one that lets us use these numbers to see what is in store for us, is what percentage of children are growing up in religious households? My suspicion is that religious people tend to have larger families. Their churches provide support networks, many of the religions prohibit the use of contraceptives or other family planning techniques, and I seem to recall seeing some demographics that support the conclusion from elsewhere but I've no time to look them up at the moment.
The question, then, is whether irreligion is at some kind of a generational high-water mark right now. The answer to that question depends on why it is that this significant number of people are choosing to abandon their religions. That is not something that the survey answers, and to get a really good understanding, requires both quantitative as well as qualitative data.
December 1, 2008
Also In Today's Mail
I found this bit of political mail that I got recently to be particularly annoying, because I fundamentally agree with the point being made, but it bothers me that the authors of the mailer feel the need to distort the truth to reach that point. Here's the flyer I got:
As you can see, the flyer -- quite correctly -- points out that California's state government is spending money in an absolutely out of control manner. And, since the Legislature has been solidly under Democratic control the whole time, it is fair to blame this mainly on the Democrats. To drive the point home, the flyer says "Much of this spending occurred under Governor Gray Davis and a Democrat controlled Legislature."*
But, let's take a look at their graph, to see what they're talking about. As you can see, the graph has three points: the budget for fiscal years 1998-1999 ($57 billion), 2002-2003 ($77 billion), and 2007-2008 ($103 billion).
Which leaves me asking two questions. First, what was spending from 1999-2002, and 2003-2007? Second, does that fit in with the theory that Democrats alone are responsible for the out-of-control growth in spending?
As for blaming Democrats, we should not forget that Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, took office on November 17, 2003. Schwarzenegger has a line-item veto and could have trimmed the budget and gone to war with the Legislature on spending if he had wanted to. So for the years 2003-2008, at least some of the blame for the rise of spending from $77 billion to $103 billion must rest at the Governator's door.
Secondly, the graph suggests a steady rise, with a moderate rise in the rate of growth after Davis was recalled and Schwarzenegger became the Governor. But I don't know, and I haven't been able to easily research, whether there were peaks and valleys along those lines, and whether those years have been chosen for a reason. I can, however, see the omission of the first two fiscal years of Davis' first administration, and the first three years of Schwarzenegger's administration. If spending dropped in the omitted Davis years† but rose in the omitted Schwarzenegger years,‡ then the authors may fear that this sort of defeats the point of the ad.
Let's tell the truth here, the whole truth. Chances are good that it will be to the budget hawks' advantage. The state government is out of control and spending way more than we can afford. The Governor only has so much ability to stem the tide. The lion's share of the blame can be laid, with full disclosure, at the door of the Democrats -- people will vaguely remember that there were big budget fights, and the Governor had to give in at some point.
The point, after all, is to rally public support behind spending cuts because the Governor is finally showing a little bit of spine on the subject. If the Governor has to take a little heat, well, he's a crafty politician; he should be able to volley it back to the Democrats and if he can't do that, well, how does he expect to govern at all? We shouldn't need to lie with statistics to drive the point home that a generation of one-party rule in Sacramento has produced a horrific result.
* I'll not comment on whether it's appropriate to refer to "the Democrats" or "Democrats," or whether it's the "Democratic" party or the "Democrat" party, although I know there are those Democrats who are sensitive about that (and IMHO, they should grow up about it).
† This seems very unlikely.
‡ This, however, seems quite likely.
As you can see, the flyer -- quite correctly -- points out that California's state government is spending money in an absolutely out of control manner. And, since the Legislature has been solidly under Democratic control the whole time, it is fair to blame this mainly on the Democrats. To drive the point home, the flyer says "Much of this spending occurred under Governor Gray Davis and a Democrat controlled Legislature."*
But, let's take a look at their graph, to see what they're talking about. As you can see, the graph has three points: the budget for fiscal years 1998-1999 ($57 billion), 2002-2003 ($77 billion), and 2007-2008 ($103 billion).Which leaves me asking two questions. First, what was spending from 1999-2002, and 2003-2007? Second, does that fit in with the theory that Democrats alone are responsible for the out-of-control growth in spending?
As for blaming Democrats, we should not forget that Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, took office on November 17, 2003. Schwarzenegger has a line-item veto and could have trimmed the budget and gone to war with the Legislature on spending if he had wanted to. So for the years 2003-2008, at least some of the blame for the rise of spending from $77 billion to $103 billion must rest at the Governator's door.
Secondly, the graph suggests a steady rise, with a moderate rise in the rate of growth after Davis was recalled and Schwarzenegger became the Governor. But I don't know, and I haven't been able to easily research, whether there were peaks and valleys along those lines, and whether those years have been chosen for a reason. I can, however, see the omission of the first two fiscal years of Davis' first administration, and the first three years of Schwarzenegger's administration. If spending dropped in the omitted Davis years† but rose in the omitted Schwarzenegger years,‡ then the authors may fear that this sort of defeats the point of the ad.
Let's tell the truth here, the whole truth. Chances are good that it will be to the budget hawks' advantage. The state government is out of control and spending way more than we can afford. The Governor only has so much ability to stem the tide. The lion's share of the blame can be laid, with full disclosure, at the door of the Democrats -- people will vaguely remember that there were big budget fights, and the Governor had to give in at some point.
The point, after all, is to rally public support behind spending cuts because the Governor is finally showing a little bit of spine on the subject. If the Governor has to take a little heat, well, he's a crafty politician; he should be able to volley it back to the Democrats and if he can't do that, well, how does he expect to govern at all? We shouldn't need to lie with statistics to drive the point home that a generation of one-party rule in Sacramento has produced a horrific result.
* I'll not comment on whether it's appropriate to refer to "the Democrats" or "Democrats," or whether it's the "Democratic" party or the "Democrat" party, although I know there are those Democrats who are sensitive about that (and IMHO, they should grow up about it).
† This seems very unlikely.
‡ This, however, seems quite likely.
November 11, 2008
Socially Conservative Black Voters
In a comment a few days ago, a Reader asked if my observation about Black voters causing Prop. 8 to pass can legitimately be expanded to say that such people are actually socially conservative. The metric, it was suggested, was whether these voters also voted “yes” on Prop. 4, an initiative which failed and would have, if enacted, put restrictions on the ability of a minor to get an abortion without parental consent.
This, it seems to me, was an excellent question and a good measure of it. So I did a little looking around, and I found the Sacramento Bee’s exit poll on Prop. 4. To put the Reader's suggestion to the test, I have culled out not one but two two relevant statistics: race, and prop. 8 voting.
I've done this because the question is whether Black voters are socialy conservative. Prop. 4 and Prop. 8 provide the two easiest measures of social conservatism available on the slate of initiatives that appeared on the California ballot this year. Prop. 8, as you all know, amended the state's Constitution to foreclose the possibility of a same-sex marriage. A "yes" vote is considered socially conservative, and a "no" vote is considered socially liberal. Prop. 4, as you may not know, was an initiative statute which would have required parental notification and a waiting period before a minor obtains an abortion. A "yes" vote is the pro-life, or socially conservative, position; a "no" vote, the opposite.
So I hypothesize that a social conservative would have voted "yes" on both Prop. 4 and Prop. 8. The converse is true also, a social liberal would have voted "no" on both initiatives.
This leaves me with a bit of a taxonomic dilemma, because there are people who voted "yes" on one initiative and "no" on another. Applying the label "moderate" to a pro-parental notification but pro-SSM voter might be technically accurate but it is not particularly informative -- especially because that results in the exact same label being applied to someone whose voting pattern is diametrically opposite that.
Now, to the data. The average “Yes on 4” (that is, pro-parental notification law) voter voted “Yes on 8” 71% of the time, and “No” 29% of the time. The average “No on 4” voter (that is, the ones who did not want to put a parental notification requirement on a minor seeking an abortion) voted almost exactly opposite – these “pro-choice” voters voted “Yes” on 8 23% of the time and “No on 8” 77% of the time.
This is interesting because it shows an almost exact mirror image. If we assume that “Yes on 4” voters have a belief set which is informed by some combination of religion and social conservativism, we would expect them to vote “Yes on 8,” as well. And that is exactly what happened – with the corollary that those whose values on abortion are not informed by religion or social conservatism would be expected to vote against parental notification and in favor of same-sex marriage.
So now, let’s look back at the racial hypothesis. Here, we see that whites voted 45-55 on Prop 4 (“yes” votes come first), blacks voted 51-49, Latinos 53-47, Asians 57-43, and no data is given for other ethnic groups. The overt difference in racial voting supports, but not by a whole lot, the idea that Blacks are socially conservative – assuming that a parental notification law is socially conservative. A very slim majority of Blacks liked the idea. This leaves us with what could a three-dimensional chart, indexing two kinds of voting patterns with race. To go further, I need to make two assumptions and a disclaimer:
Doing the math, the results are as follows (table includes raw vote extrapolation and percentage by racial group):
A few notes about how I assembled this data:
First, I assumed that the 71-29 or 23-77 split holds true, on average, across racial lines. Ths is likely not accurate. The question, which I cannot answer, is whether these splits are close enough across racial lines to use those splits as approximations. I do so, but there's your caveat -- my data is not cross-indexed enough, and extrapolating that result from the available information is the point of this exercise.
Second, I assume that every voter actually cast a vote on both initiatives. This is definitely not accurate. The Secretary of State (whose website is finally working again) shows a total of 10,703,198 votes cast on Prop. 4 and 11,084,210 votes cast on Prop. 8 - a difference of more than 380,000 votes. However, I deem the difference of 3.4% to be, while not negligible, not significant enough to render the exercise useless.
Finally, I note that no data was included in Bee's exit poll concerning "other" racial groups (like Indian-Americans, or Native Americans, for instance). So my extrapolation for them is based only on the at-large exit poll numbers.
Simplified to rounded percentages, it looks like this:
Overall, white and Asian voters appear the most socially liberal. The differences between that bloc and combined Latino and "other" voters are very small, nearly insignficant. But standing in great contrast to this are the African-American voters. The proportion of African-American voters in the most conservative category is much higher than in other ethnic groups, and the proprotion of them in the most liberal category is much lower.
One interesting similarity appears, though. Across all ethnic groups, the clumsily-named "moderates," who voted yes on one of the initiatives and no on the other, are all just over a quarter of the total votes cast (about 26%). This is a reflection of the near mirror-image splits on the overall vote. If I could get better data on racial differences between the voting, I would predict more variability in this area of analysis.
But, my Reader's suggestion that African-American voters are particularly intolerant of homosexuality finds some statistical purchase, in that the African-American "split" votes weigh much more heavily in the "No on 4, Yes on 8" category than do the other racial groups.
I conclude from that my Reader and I are both right. As suggested, there does seem to be a measurably more intense strain of opposition to same-sex marriage within African-American voters. And, it is also true that a majority of African-American voters are in the most socially conservative category. Which dovetails back to my original thesis -- these voters were recruited from and motivated by churches and other religiously-affiliated groups and as a result can be expected to be socially conservative, all other things being equal.
This was a very unusual election indeed; it may well be that a significant national political realignment, affecting both parties and all sorts of conventional wisdom, has taken place, or is still taking place.
Now, please bear in mind that I am not, in this post, attempting to blame any group of people for Prop. 8 passing. The blame for that rests with the "No on 8" campaign and not with any ethnic group. But I am trying to understand what is happening politically. What I am observing here is that contrary to the traditional wisdom upon which I was raised and educated, African-American voters (not necessarily all African-Americans, mind you, the voters) have become among the most socially conservative voters out there.
That is not a normative statement. The poll numbers and the election returns are what they are; math is what it is, and I've done the math without consciously looking for a particular result. What I have done here is make a political science observation of moderate sophistication, one that I have endeavored to make in an open-eyed and unprejudiced way. That is all. What we do with this data, whether collectively as a society, as a political party, as a political movement, or as individuals, is a different question.
This, it seems to me, was an excellent question and a good measure of it. So I did a little looking around, and I found the Sacramento Bee’s exit poll on Prop. 4. To put the Reader's suggestion to the test, I have culled out not one but two two relevant statistics: race, and prop. 8 voting.
I've done this because the question is whether Black voters are socialy conservative. Prop. 4 and Prop. 8 provide the two easiest measures of social conservatism available on the slate of initiatives that appeared on the California ballot this year. Prop. 8, as you all know, amended the state's Constitution to foreclose the possibility of a same-sex marriage. A "yes" vote is considered socially conservative, and a "no" vote is considered socially liberal. Prop. 4, as you may not know, was an initiative statute which would have required parental notification and a waiting period before a minor obtains an abortion. A "yes" vote is the pro-life, or socially conservative, position; a "no" vote, the opposite.
So I hypothesize that a social conservative would have voted "yes" on both Prop. 4 and Prop. 8. The converse is true also, a social liberal would have voted "no" on both initiatives.
This leaves me with a bit of a taxonomic dilemma, because there are people who voted "yes" on one initiative and "no" on another. Applying the label "moderate" to a pro-parental notification but pro-SSM voter might be technically accurate but it is not particularly informative -- especially because that results in the exact same label being applied to someone whose voting pattern is diametrically opposite that.
Now, to the data. The average “Yes on 4” (that is, pro-parental notification law) voter voted “Yes on 8” 71% of the time, and “No” 29% of the time. The average “No on 4” voter (that is, the ones who did not want to put a parental notification requirement on a minor seeking an abortion) voted almost exactly opposite – these “pro-choice” voters voted “Yes” on 8 23% of the time and “No on 8” 77% of the time.
This is interesting because it shows an almost exact mirror image. If we assume that “Yes on 4” voters have a belief set which is informed by some combination of religion and social conservativism, we would expect them to vote “Yes on 8,” as well. And that is exactly what happened – with the corollary that those whose values on abortion are not informed by religion or social conservatism would be expected to vote against parental notification and in favor of same-sex marriage.
So now, let’s look back at the racial hypothesis. Here, we see that whites voted 45-55 on Prop 4 (“yes” votes come first), blacks voted 51-49, Latinos 53-47, Asians 57-43, and no data is given for other ethnic groups. The overt difference in racial voting supports, but not by a whole lot, the idea that Blacks are socially conservative – assuming that a parental notification law is socially conservative. A very slim majority of Blacks liked the idea. This leaves us with what could a three-dimensional chart, indexing two kinds of voting patterns with race. To go further, I need to make two assumptions and a disclaimer:
Doing the math, the results are as follows (table includes raw vote extrapolation and percentage by racial group):
| Racial Group | Yes on both 4 and 8 | Yes on 8, No on 4 | No on 8, Yes on 4 | No on both 4 and 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 2,314,670 35.77% | 856,111 13.23% | 759,046 11.73% | 2,541,154 39.27% |
| African-American | 524,869 51.10% | 194,129 18.90% | 199,861 6.90% | 237,269 23.10% |
| Latino | 715,320 38.69% | 264,571 14.31% | 199,861 10.81% | 669,099 36.19% |
| Asian | 220,445 35.77% | 81,534 13.23% | 72,290 11.73% | 242,015 39.27% |
| Other | 114,721 37.23% | 42,431 13.77% | 34,728 11.27% | 116,262 37.73% |
A few notes about how I assembled this data:
First, I assumed that the 71-29 or 23-77 split holds true, on average, across racial lines. Ths is likely not accurate. The question, which I cannot answer, is whether these splits are close enough across racial lines to use those splits as approximations. I do so, but there's your caveat -- my data is not cross-indexed enough, and extrapolating that result from the available information is the point of this exercise.
Second, I assume that every voter actually cast a vote on both initiatives. This is definitely not accurate. The Secretary of State (whose website is finally working again) shows a total of 10,703,198 votes cast on Prop. 4 and 11,084,210 votes cast on Prop. 8 - a difference of more than 380,000 votes. However, I deem the difference of 3.4% to be, while not negligible, not significant enough to render the exercise useless.
Finally, I note that no data was included in Bee's exit poll concerning "other" racial groups (like Indian-Americans, or Native Americans, for instance). So my extrapolation for them is based only on the at-large exit poll numbers.
Simplified to rounded percentages, it looks like this:
Racial Group | Yes on both | Yes on 8, No on 4 | No on 8, Yes on 4 | No on both |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| White | 36% | 13% | 12% | 39% |
| African-American | 51% | 19% | 7% | 23% |
| Latino | 39% | 14% | 11% | 36% |
| Asian | 36% | 13% | 12% | 39% |
| Other | 37% | 14% | 11% | 38% |
Overall, white and Asian voters appear the most socially liberal. The differences between that bloc and combined Latino and "other" voters are very small, nearly insignficant. But standing in great contrast to this are the African-American voters. The proportion of African-American voters in the most conservative category is much higher than in other ethnic groups, and the proprotion of them in the most liberal category is much lower.
One interesting similarity appears, though. Across all ethnic groups, the clumsily-named "moderates," who voted yes on one of the initiatives and no on the other, are all just over a quarter of the total votes cast (about 26%). This is a reflection of the near mirror-image splits on the overall vote. If I could get better data on racial differences between the voting, I would predict more variability in this area of analysis.
But, my Reader's suggestion that African-American voters are particularly intolerant of homosexuality finds some statistical purchase, in that the African-American "split" votes weigh much more heavily in the "No on 4, Yes on 8" category than do the other racial groups.
I conclude from that my Reader and I are both right. As suggested, there does seem to be a measurably more intense strain of opposition to same-sex marriage within African-American voters. And, it is also true that a majority of African-American voters are in the most socially conservative category. Which dovetails back to my original thesis -- these voters were recruited from and motivated by churches and other religiously-affiliated groups and as a result can be expected to be socially conservative, all other things being equal.
This was a very unusual election indeed; it may well be that a significant national political realignment, affecting both parties and all sorts of conventional wisdom, has taken place, or is still taking place.
Now, please bear in mind that I am not, in this post, attempting to blame any group of people for Prop. 8 passing. The blame for that rests with the "No on 8" campaign and not with any ethnic group. But I am trying to understand what is happening politically. What I am observing here is that contrary to the traditional wisdom upon which I was raised and educated, African-American voters (not necessarily all African-Americans, mind you, the voters) have become among the most socially conservative voters out there.
That is not a normative statement. The poll numbers and the election returns are what they are; math is what it is, and I've done the math without consciously looking for a particular result. What I have done here is make a political science observation of moderate sophistication, one that I have endeavored to make in an open-eyed and unprejudiced way. That is all. What we do with this data, whether collectively as a society, as a political party, as a political movement, or as individuals, is a different question.
November 7, 2008
Wait For The Bigots To Grow Old And Die So They Can't Vote Anymore
Okay, the title of this post is deliberately provocative. But, the third big suggestion I have for repeal of Prop. 8 is patience. No less a SSM advocate than Andrew Sullivan joins me in this counsel. And that's because he sees, as clearly as I do, that demographic creep makes Prop. 8 only a temporary setback along the path towards realizing SSM.
The reason patience is a good strategy is quite simple. The younger you are, the less likely you are to see a problem with same-sex marriage. The exit polling for Prop. 8, looking at the age cleavages, reveals this to be nearly arithmetically true:
The deviation in the trend is baby boomers, who were only barely in favor of Prop. 8. Right now, majority-"no" voters represent only one-fifth of the electorate. But as the seniors start dying out, and the Boomers neutralize, or at least nearly neutralize, the highest-propensity brackets to a break-even point, more young voters will fill move in to the youngest brackets, and the same people who right now are under 30 will move into higher-propensity voting brackets.
The result -- if we assume that people who right now are ages eight to seventeen will vote on this issue in similar numbers as the brand-new voters of this cycle, in about ten years, those voters currently in the the 61% "yes" bracket will have both shrunk in size because of deaths within their ranks, and young voters replacing them in the generational cycle will vote with nearly the opposite pattern. Within ten years, given these trends, there will be a solid majority in favor of SSM out there in the electorate.
Ten years may seem like a long time for people who very much want to be married, and deserve to be married, to wait. And I don't have a very palatable answer to that objection if you are making it. You deserve to be married now. But I'm not dealing with the normative world of "should" here, I'm dealing with the objective world of "the way it really is." They way it really is, we have to wait until the demographics of the electorate become more friendly. Maybe the tipping point will pass in five years, but the longer we wait to try and get this done, the greater our chances of success.
The reason patience is a good strategy is quite simple. The younger you are, the less likely you are to see a problem with same-sex marriage. The exit polling for Prop. 8, looking at the age cleavages, reveals this to be nearly arithmetically true:
| Age Bracket | Percent Voting Yes | Percent of Total Voters |
|---|---|---|
| 18-24 | 36% | 11% |
| 25-29 | 41% | 9% |
| 30-39 | 52% | 17% |
| 40-49 | 59% | 22% |
| 50-64 | 51% | 26% |
| 65+ | 61% | 15% |
The deviation in the trend is baby boomers, who were only barely in favor of Prop. 8. Right now, majority-"no" voters represent only one-fifth of the electorate. But as the seniors start dying out, and the Boomers neutralize, or at least nearly neutralize, the highest-propensity brackets to a break-even point, more young voters will fill move in to the youngest brackets, and the same people who right now are under 30 will move into higher-propensity voting brackets.
The result -- if we assume that people who right now are ages eight to seventeen will vote on this issue in similar numbers as the brand-new voters of this cycle, in about ten years, those voters currently in the the 61% "yes" bracket will have both shrunk in size because of deaths within their ranks, and young voters replacing them in the generational cycle will vote with nearly the opposite pattern. Within ten years, given these trends, there will be a solid majority in favor of SSM out there in the electorate.
Ten years may seem like a long time for people who very much want to be married, and deserve to be married, to wait. And I don't have a very palatable answer to that objection if you are making it. You deserve to be married now. But I'm not dealing with the normative world of "should" here, I'm dealing with the objective world of "the way it really is." They way it really is, we have to wait until the demographics of the electorate become more friendly. Maybe the tipping point will pass in five years, but the longer we wait to try and get this done, the greater our chances of success.
November 5, 2008
Polimetric Postmortem
I wrote a while back that I thought there was a realistic chance that Barack Obama could throw the Prop. 8 election over to the "yes" side. That post, by the way, has become the most popular post I've ever written -- it's received more than 500 hits in less than 24 hours.
I've come to believe that is mostly true -- at least, I'm convinced that this effect happened, although I do not think that, by itself, it was the margin of victory. I do think that without it, Prop. 8 would have failed -- it was an indispensible part of the victory strategy.
Now, while I never pursued graduate-level studies in polimetrics, I'm pretty sure that as the political scientists pore over the data and do their statistical regression analyses, this will be borne out. What you need to understand about polimetrics is that it is based on the idea of cleavages -- finding differences between people that are thought to be significant, and seeing if those differences track along with voting behavior.
Certainly, all of us are individuals with our own opinions and thoughts. But we're also part of various groups and our way of looking at the world is influenced by our membership in, or lack of membership in, certain categories of people. Polimetric analysis seeks to quantify the effect of those differences. It is from these kinds of studies of voting behavior that we trace back our understanding of what it means to capture "the Black vote," for instance, or "the women's vote."
So when I found, via Obsidian Wings, the beginnings of polimetric analysis of the vote, it was where I gravitated to figure out how a state as traditionally liberal as California could have behaved as it did, approving (albeit narrowly) what looks like targeted bigotry of gay people in the political arena. The trackback goes ultimately to the CNN exit poll on Prop. 8. So now, let's dig in to the numbers.
First of all, the total votes were 5,387,939 for, and 4,883,460 against. The margin of victory was 504,479 votes.
There was effectively no gender cleavage. There were trends -- the older a voter is, the more likely the voter is to vote "yes," and the more education a voter has, the more likely the voter is to vote "no." Interestingly, there was a bulge in income -- very low-earning and very high-earning voters tended to vote "no," but middle-income earners tended to vote "yes." Looking at the electorate aas a whole, these things were pretty much a wash.
But there was a race cleavage* -- a big one:
So, the ethnic group that voted for Prop. 8 in by far the largest proportion were Blacks. Working in the "yes" and "no" votes along these lines, we get the following results (rounded off to the nearest whole numbers):
The marginal disparity along ethnic lines is quite pronounced. The most likely kind of voter to vote "yes" was a self-identified "conservative Repubilcan." The second-most likely kind of voter to vote "yes" was an African-American.
Now, there is little doubt that Obama boosted African-American turnout. Now, let me preface that. As chronicled on fivethirtyeight.com, "It is something of a myth that African-American voters do not turn out to vote." Once registered, African-Americans are as likely to vote as any other group of people. The difference is that they tend not to be registered in as high numbers as other groups. Now, in the primaries, African-Americans in California made up only about 7% of the total voters. In the general, election, that rose to 10%. What happened? Obama's post-primary voter registration drive is what happened.
Had voter registration remained at the levels they were in the primaries, we can surmise that there would have been, instead of the statistical figure of 1,027,140 votes cast by self-identified African-Americans, only 718,998 votes. Assuming further that those African-Americans would have kept their same 70% "Yes" pattern, that produces a result of 5,113,102 votes for Prop. 8 and 4,850,155 against. That cuts the margin of victory in half -- but it is still a victory for Prop. 8.
If we assume the same thing with Latino and Other* voters, we reduce the margin of victory even further, but not by much -- the margin of victory would drop to 227,820 out of a total of 9,316,159 votes cast, or 2.445%.
So it looks to me like Obama's voter registration drive had an effect. There is an important lesson to be learned here. That is that although African-American and Latino voters are predominantly registered as Democrats, they are nevertheless socially conservative. This should not be a surprise, particularly in this case. Obama's voter-registration drive piggybacked on a lot of church organizations -- and in a lot of African-American and Latino communities, churches are the only social organizations to speak of anyway. So you take an already religiously-centered group of people, and then cherry-pick people who are active churchgoers for your registration drive, and what you've done is to make the body of voters within that population to be very religious. And religious, in this context, means socially conservative, at least to the point that the voter's views on same-sex marriage will be informed by Biblical instruction condemning homosexuality** and therefore will be much more likely to vote "yes" on Prop. 8 or its equivalent.
In this coincidence do we see one of the political errors made by the opponents of Prop. 8 -- their calculus did not consider the effects of Obama's voter registration drive increasing social conservatism within the ranks of this segment of the electorate. This was probably the brainchild of arrogance -- the "No on 8" people mostly considered themselves liberals and progressives, and were generally attracted to Obama out of some combination of ideological sympathy with him and a desire to see an African-American President to advance race relations. But their intellectual arrogance was in assuming that everyone who was attracted to Obama would be attracted to him for the same reasons and therefore behave uniformly in the voting booth. This, it turns out, was a mistake.
I also do not think that the "Yes on 8" people can take a lot of credit for this. Most of them were the sorts of people you'd expect to be McCain voters. I do think they knew what they were doing when they, too, tapped into churches to advance their cause. And since they were focused on the ballot measure, they probably did not address the Presidential election all that much. My suspicion is that the conservatizing of the Black vote was not something that they had calculated on happening -- but which, of course, they were happy to benefit from.
But all of this only half (well, really about 55%) answers the question. Where did the other 227,820 "yes" votes come from? Here, statistics fail me. I can only point to several factors that I think were either mistakes or at least unsolved problems with the "no" campaign:
Tomorrow, I'll muse a little bit about what those of us who were on the "No" side should do next. And what they should not do.
* Sorry, Bob, there was no separate category for Indians (or Indian-Americans, if you prefer). I didn't make up the exit poll.
** This is not the place to comment on the prevalent ignorance of other Biblical prohibitions on marriage and sex, like, say, divorce. I can rail against the hypocrisy of contemporary religious institutions elsewhere.
I've come to believe that is mostly true -- at least, I'm convinced that this effect happened, although I do not think that, by itself, it was the margin of victory. I do think that without it, Prop. 8 would have failed -- it was an indispensible part of the victory strategy.
Now, while I never pursued graduate-level studies in polimetrics, I'm pretty sure that as the political scientists pore over the data and do their statistical regression analyses, this will be borne out. What you need to understand about polimetrics is that it is based on the idea of cleavages -- finding differences between people that are thought to be significant, and seeing if those differences track along with voting behavior.
Certainly, all of us are individuals with our own opinions and thoughts. But we're also part of various groups and our way of looking at the world is influenced by our membership in, or lack of membership in, certain categories of people. Polimetric analysis seeks to quantify the effect of those differences. It is from these kinds of studies of voting behavior that we trace back our understanding of what it means to capture "the Black vote," for instance, or "the women's vote."
So when I found, via Obsidian Wings, the beginnings of polimetric analysis of the vote, it was where I gravitated to figure out how a state as traditionally liberal as California could have behaved as it did, approving (albeit narrowly) what looks like targeted bigotry of gay people in the political arena. The trackback goes ultimately to the CNN exit poll on Prop. 8. So now, let's dig in to the numbers.
First of all, the total votes were 5,387,939 for, and 4,883,460 against. The margin of victory was 504,479 votes.
There was effectively no gender cleavage. There were trends -- the older a voter is, the more likely the voter is to vote "yes," and the more education a voter has, the more likely the voter is to vote "no." Interestingly, there was a bulge in income -- very low-earning and very high-earning voters tended to vote "no," but middle-income earners tended to vote "yes." Looking at the electorate aas a whole, these things were pretty much a wash.
But there was a race cleavage* -- a big one:
| Racial Group | Percent Voting Yes | Percent of Total Voters |
|---|---|---|
| White | 49% | 63% |
| African-American | 70% | 10% |
| Latino | 53% | 18% |
| Asian | 49% | 6% |
| Other | 51% | 3% |
So, the ethnic group that voted for Prop. 8 in by far the largest proportion were Blacks. Working in the "yes" and "no" votes along these lines, we get the following results (rounded off to the nearest whole numbers):
| Racial Group | Yes Votes | No Votes |
|---|---|---|
| White | 3,170,781 | 3,300,200 |
| African-American | 718,998 | 308,142 |
| Latino | 979,891 | 868,960 |
| Asian | 301,979 | 314,305 |
| Other | 157,152 | 150,990 |
The marginal disparity along ethnic lines is quite pronounced. The most likely kind of voter to vote "yes" was a self-identified "conservative Repubilcan." The second-most likely kind of voter to vote "yes" was an African-American.
Now, there is little doubt that Obama boosted African-American turnout. Now, let me preface that. As chronicled on fivethirtyeight.com, "It is something of a myth that African-American voters do not turn out to vote." Once registered, African-Americans are as likely to vote as any other group of people. The difference is that they tend not to be registered in as high numbers as other groups. Now, in the primaries, African-Americans in California made up only about 7% of the total voters. In the general, election, that rose to 10%. What happened? Obama's post-primary voter registration drive is what happened.
Had voter registration remained at the levels they were in the primaries, we can surmise that there would have been, instead of the statistical figure of 1,027,140 votes cast by self-identified African-Americans, only 718,998 votes. Assuming further that those African-Americans would have kept their same 70% "Yes" pattern, that produces a result of 5,113,102 votes for Prop. 8 and 4,850,155 against. That cuts the margin of victory in half -- but it is still a victory for Prop. 8.
If we assume the same thing with Latino and Other* voters, we reduce the margin of victory even further, but not by much -- the margin of victory would drop to 227,820 out of a total of 9,316,159 votes cast, or 2.445%.
So it looks to me like Obama's voter registration drive had an effect. There is an important lesson to be learned here. That is that although African-American and Latino voters are predominantly registered as Democrats, they are nevertheless socially conservative. This should not be a surprise, particularly in this case. Obama's voter-registration drive piggybacked on a lot of church organizations -- and in a lot of African-American and Latino communities, churches are the only social organizations to speak of anyway. So you take an already religiously-centered group of people, and then cherry-pick people who are active churchgoers for your registration drive, and what you've done is to make the body of voters within that population to be very religious. And religious, in this context, means socially conservative, at least to the point that the voter's views on same-sex marriage will be informed by Biblical instruction condemning homosexuality** and therefore will be much more likely to vote "yes" on Prop. 8 or its equivalent.
In this coincidence do we see one of the political errors made by the opponents of Prop. 8 -- their calculus did not consider the effects of Obama's voter registration drive increasing social conservatism within the ranks of this segment of the electorate. This was probably the brainchild of arrogance -- the "No on 8" people mostly considered themselves liberals and progressives, and were generally attracted to Obama out of some combination of ideological sympathy with him and a desire to see an African-American President to advance race relations. But their intellectual arrogance was in assuming that everyone who was attracted to Obama would be attracted to him for the same reasons and therefore behave uniformly in the voting booth. This, it turns out, was a mistake.
I also do not think that the "Yes on 8" people can take a lot of credit for this. Most of them were the sorts of people you'd expect to be McCain voters. I do think they knew what they were doing when they, too, tapped into churches to advance their cause. And since they were focused on the ballot measure, they probably did not address the Presidential election all that much. My suspicion is that the conservatizing of the Black vote was not something that they had calculated on happening -- but which, of course, they were happy to benefit from.
But all of this only half (well, really about 55%) answers the question. Where did the other 227,820 "yes" votes come from? Here, statistics fail me. I can only point to several factors that I think were either mistakes or at least unsolved problems with the "no" campaign:
- When some initial polls came out showing the proposition failing decisively, the "no on 8" leaders got complacent. They did not fund-raise they way they should have, they did not recruit good pepole they way they should have.
- Many of the talented political organizers and strategists they could have drawn on were likely sucked up by the Obama campaign, and probably shipped out of state.
- Obama himself always opposed same-sex marriage.
- Advertisements for "no" were fewer and more concentrated in urban areas. The leaders of the campaign did not apparently think that "no" would have traction in the suburbs or exurbs. On a related and not inconsisent note, they may not think about non-urban places all that often, or all that accurately.
- The "no" pitch is a little bit complicated and abstract to explain if you're afraid to show the voters a gay couple in a picture. Very few advertisements showed happy gay couples. Very few advertisements mentioned gay people at all, probably for fear that the image of a same-sex couple would shock viewers and create a backfire of support for "Yes." But this is what the controversy was about, and the best ads I saw -- very late in the game -- did show gay couples, with kids.
- The "yes" pitch got submerged in a bunch of misinformation that the "no" crowd never found a way to counteract. The "my kids will learn about gay marriage at school" pitch for "yes" never was met with the obvious response: "Not if you're paying attention to what your kids are diong at school." This is true because in California, any parent can pull any kid out of sex education in a district that even has it in the first place, with no academic penalty. Yes, that's a complicated concept to explain in 30 seconds. But no one even tried to make that argument.
- The "Yes on 8" posters had a neat little graphic of a family of stick figures and high-contrast selection of blue-on-yellow images. They stand out, and stick in the eye. The "No on 8" posters had white and dark red letters on a dark blue background -- the contrast was too low, and there were no images, just words. It was simply less appealing; no one thought to find a good visual icon for the "No" cause.
- Because "Yes on 8" tapped into churches, there was a huge network of volunteers all around the state. I saw people putting "Yes on 8" signs up all over the place on Election Day. Nothing remotely like that for "No." Simply put, the "Yes" side out-spent, out-organized, and out-strategized the "No" side.
Tomorrow, I'll muse a little bit about what those of us who were on the "No" side should do next. And what they should not do.
* Sorry, Bob, there was no separate category for Indians (or Indian-Americans, if you prefer). I didn't make up the exit poll.
** This is not the place to comment on the prevalent ignorance of other Biblical prohibitions on marriage and sex, like, say, divorce. I can rail against the hypocrisy of contemporary religious institutions elsewhere.
October 16, 2008
Joe The Plumber
Lots of talk this morning about "Joe The Plumber," an imaginary, "average" American who John McCain started speaking to in the debate last night. Obama picked up the trope and now Joe The Plumber is in every house across this great nation of ours.
Well, thing is, it's hard to find Joe The Plumber in real life. Plumbers, you can find. Getting them to show up on time, now, that may be a different story. A friend at work has this joke -- "How do you become a contractor? Well, the Licensing Board periodically announces the date, time, and place of various exams. If you show up at the right place and the right time, you're disqualified. Showing up at the right place and the right time proves that you're not a real contractor." When he was a contractor his company's slogan was "We Actually Show Up" and they got more business than any of his competitors.
You can find plumbers. And some of them are very well-skilled and in fact a plumber who is good at his job and marketing himself can do quite well. The joke at the bar conventions is that the hotshot trial lawyer gets a stoppage in his toilet, so he calls the plumber. The plumber comes to the lawyer's house and drops a snake in the toilet, and ten minutes later the problem is fixed. Toilet works great. "That'll be $450," the plumber says. "You're kidding!" says the lawyer. "You were here ten minutes and you want $450 for it? I'm a lawyer and I only charge $300 an hour! Ten minutes of my time is only fifty bucks!" "Sure," the plumber says back. "When I still had my law practice, that's what I charged, too."
I digress. It seems that "Joe the Plumber" is a real guy, named Joe Wurzelbacher, who lives in Ohio. It doesn't matter how much you appeal to him; Joe the Plumber (like most Americans) has opted out of the franchise by his failure to register to vote. UPDATE: No, strike, that, apparently he is a registered voter (a Republican), but he's not a licensed plumber. He's discussed buying the plumbing company he works for, and is a single dad raising his 13-year-old son.
Even as figurative a stand-in for the "average American," it's difficult to see what, intellectually, is gained by such an appeal. The average American is hard to define as anything but an obviously nonexistent statistical abstraction -- no one really has 2.7 children. In fact, households like my own with a married couple and no children are the plurality, although the statistically average American has some children.
Now, consider plumbers. The average American is not a plumber. 62.8% of Americans work in an office or some other kind of white-collar capacity. If you add hotel maids, food-service workers and similar low-paying service jobs, that figure rises to an incredible 75.5%. Having hired plumbers in the past, I can assure you that the joke about a lawyer astonished at the fee is true and so it is hard to see how plumbers can be classified as "low-paying" service workers.
"Average" income is an almost useless concept in a country that has sizeable populations of both billionaire hedge fund managers and homeless people living under bridges. "Median" income is a much more interesting number. Now, Joe the Plumber has overhead and stuff, but doing what he does for a living, he's probably clearing fifty grand or more a year, which puts him ahead of the power curve for guys with little, if any, college. That's not to say he doesn't earn it. Plumbers often have to be on-call 24 hours a day and that can interfere with his life, his ability to get sleep or do things with his 2.7 kids.
Finally, what is "average" varies tremendously by location within the U.S. In Arizona, for instance, it would probably be more accurate to talk about Jose the Plumber than Joe the Plumber, and to note that he consumes rougly 15.25 pounds of salsa a year. In Kentucky, what makes Joe average would be his membership in a 200-member Baptist church located within three miles of his house. Boston Joe is defined as "average" by his advocacy for the Celtics and possession of a jealously-guarded street parking permit. Pretty much everywhere, Joe is probably overweight, has a year or so of some kind of school after high school, and it's pretty much up to him to solve his problems rather than his government.
So, Joe the Plumber may well be a typical American, but I don't think he's an "average" American. I'm not sure the "average" American exists. I'm not dense. I understand that by trying to appeal to "average" Americans, the candidates are trying to appeal to large numbers of Americans who identify themselves in one way or another with this concept of "average." But we are a pretty diverse group of people, we Americans, and governing us is a tricker problem than the one that confronted de Gaulle in 1962. Joe the Plumber is a colorful political device, but not a useful tool for figuring out what good policy is.
Well, thing is, it's hard to find Joe The Plumber in real life. Plumbers, you can find. Getting them to show up on time, now, that may be a different story. A friend at work has this joke -- "How do you become a contractor? Well, the Licensing Board periodically announces the date, time, and place of various exams. If you show up at the right place and the right time, you're disqualified. Showing up at the right place and the right time proves that you're not a real contractor." When he was a contractor his company's slogan was "We Actually Show Up" and they got more business than any of his competitors.
You can find plumbers. And some of them are very well-skilled and in fact a plumber who is good at his job and marketing himself can do quite well. The joke at the bar conventions is that the hotshot trial lawyer gets a stoppage in his toilet, so he calls the plumber. The plumber comes to the lawyer's house and drops a snake in the toilet, and ten minutes later the problem is fixed. Toilet works great. "That'll be $450," the plumber says. "You're kidding!" says the lawyer. "You were here ten minutes and you want $450 for it? I'm a lawyer and I only charge $300 an hour! Ten minutes of my time is only fifty bucks!" "Sure," the plumber says back. "When I still had my law practice, that's what I charged, too."
I digress. It seems that "Joe the Plumber" is a real guy, named Joe Wurzelbacher, who lives in Ohio. It doesn't matter how much you appeal to him; Joe the Plumber (like most Americans) has opted out of the franchise by his failure to register to vote. UPDATE: No, strike, that, apparently he is a registered voter (a Republican), but he's not a licensed plumber. He's discussed buying the plumbing company he works for, and is a single dad raising his 13-year-old son.
Even as figurative a stand-in for the "average American," it's difficult to see what, intellectually, is gained by such an appeal. The average American is hard to define as anything but an obviously nonexistent statistical abstraction -- no one really has 2.7 children. In fact, households like my own with a married couple and no children are the plurality, although the statistically average American has some children.
Now, consider plumbers. The average American is not a plumber. 62.8% of Americans work in an office or some other kind of white-collar capacity. If you add hotel maids, food-service workers and similar low-paying service jobs, that figure rises to an incredible 75.5%. Having hired plumbers in the past, I can assure you that the joke about a lawyer astonished at the fee is true and so it is hard to see how plumbers can be classified as "low-paying" service workers.
"Average" income is an almost useless concept in a country that has sizeable populations of both billionaire hedge fund managers and homeless people living under bridges. "Median" income is a much more interesting number. Now, Joe the Plumber has overhead and stuff, but doing what he does for a living, he's probably clearing fifty grand or more a year, which puts him ahead of the power curve for guys with little, if any, college. That's not to say he doesn't earn it. Plumbers often have to be on-call 24 hours a day and that can interfere with his life, his ability to get sleep or do things with his 2.7 kids.
Finally, what is "average" varies tremendously by location within the U.S. In Arizona, for instance, it would probably be more accurate to talk about Jose the Plumber than Joe the Plumber, and to note that he consumes rougly 15.25 pounds of salsa a year. In Kentucky, what makes Joe average would be his membership in a 200-member Baptist church located within three miles of his house. Boston Joe is defined as "average" by his advocacy for the Celtics and possession of a jealously-guarded street parking permit. Pretty much everywhere, Joe is probably overweight, has a year or so of some kind of school after high school, and it's pretty much up to him to solve his problems rather than his government.
So, Joe the Plumber may well be a typical American, but I don't think he's an "average" American. I'm not sure the "average" American exists. I'm not dense. I understand that by trying to appeal to "average" Americans, the candidates are trying to appeal to large numbers of Americans who identify themselves in one way or another with this concept of "average." But we are a pretty diverse group of people, we Americans, and governing us is a tricker problem than the one that confronted de Gaulle in 1962. Joe the Plumber is a colorful political device, but not a useful tool for figuring out what good policy is.
August 30, 2008
Only Kind Of About Sarah Palin
At fivethirtyeight.com,* the spot-polling report is that women are more critical of McCain's pick of Sarah Palin than men. This is no particular surprise to me. My experience in front of juries leads me to believe that women tend to be more critical of other women than they are of men. Similarly, men are more critical of other men than they are of women. I don't think this is some bizarre perversion of feminism, because I think it does apply to men, too.
I believe I've set this theory out in these pages before. But I'll do it again because I think this is particularly important to put this political datum in perspective.
My theory is that it has to do with identification and understanding of the other person's role in a relationship; women understand how a woman fits into a particular situation (often much more awkwardly than we men appreciate until we really pause to think about it) and may not have the same visceral appreciation for how men fit into the situation. So too when the roles are reversed. In other words, it's easier to visualize yourself in the role of another person when that person is your own gender. So when you hear a story about a man and a woman interacting in some way, you will tend to focus, perhaps subconsciously, on the person of your own gender. When that person deviates from the behavior that you would expect of yourself, you become critical.
The result has been that female jurors have told me that they were the ones to initiate criticism of female witnesses or parties, and the same for male jurors being critical of male protagonists in a trial. So I'm not surprised that female voters would look more critically at Sarah Palin than male voters. I'm reserving judgment for now; maybe if I were female I would be less inclined to do so. Of course, if I were a Democrat I would feel an impulse to be critical of the choice and that may be more important than gender for this particular choice. And then there is the issue of women being more likely to be Democrats than men -- but Republican women are more critical of the choice than Republican men, too -- although by a lower margin than women who self-identified as independents or Democrats. So this does seem to be a reflection of the criticize-your-own-gender phenomenon I've seen anecdotally in other contexts.
I'm curious if others who read this blog share that experience of people being more critical of members of their own gender than of the opposite gender -- particularly, but not necessarily limited to, lawyers who have had to take matters to jury trials.
* If you're looking for a place to stay up-to-date on Presidential and Senatorial campaign polling, this is the place to go. It's appropriately-weighted and intelligently analyzed state-by-state polling data updated pretty much daily. With probability simulations wargamed for you daily, too. I don't get paid for endorsements like this.
I believe I've set this theory out in these pages before. But I'll do it again because I think this is particularly important to put this political datum in perspective.
My theory is that it has to do with identification and understanding of the other person's role in a relationship; women understand how a woman fits into a particular situation (often much more awkwardly than we men appreciate until we really pause to think about it) and may not have the same visceral appreciation for how men fit into the situation. So too when the roles are reversed. In other words, it's easier to visualize yourself in the role of another person when that person is your own gender. So when you hear a story about a man and a woman interacting in some way, you will tend to focus, perhaps subconsciously, on the person of your own gender. When that person deviates from the behavior that you would expect of yourself, you become critical.
The result has been that female jurors have told me that they were the ones to initiate criticism of female witnesses or parties, and the same for male jurors being critical of male protagonists in a trial. So I'm not surprised that female voters would look more critically at Sarah Palin than male voters. I'm reserving judgment for now; maybe if I were female I would be less inclined to do so. Of course, if I were a Democrat I would feel an impulse to be critical of the choice and that may be more important than gender for this particular choice. And then there is the issue of women being more likely to be Democrats than men -- but Republican women are more critical of the choice than Republican men, too -- although by a lower margin than women who self-identified as independents or Democrats. So this does seem to be a reflection of the criticize-your-own-gender phenomenon I've seen anecdotally in other contexts.
I'm curious if others who read this blog share that experience of people being more critical of members of their own gender than of the opposite gender -- particularly, but not necessarily limited to, lawyers who have had to take matters to jury trials.
* If you're looking for a place to stay up-to-date on Presidential and Senatorial campaign polling, this is the place to go. It's appropriately-weighted and intelligently analyzed state-by-state polling data updated pretty much daily. With probability simulations wargamed for you daily, too. I don't get paid for endorsements like this.
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