January 15, 2008

Rudy's Confident...

…Or at least, so he claims.  But he’s not paying his senior staff, though, which is not a good sign at all.  Where did all that money go?  He’s been buying air time in Florida like a fiend, but now three recent polls indicate a four-way tie in Florida.  Hizzonner has fallen to third place nationally, and he’s lost the lead and lost the lead in California.  Ah well, at least he’s lost the lead to McCain, which is an acceptable fallback position for the likes of me.  Should be acceptable to most Republicans, too, since McCain is the only Republican who is polling better than Obama or Clinton in head-to-head polls.  That means that McCain has “electability,” an attribute which it seems Giuliani has lost, and neither Huckabee nor Romney ever had.  Still, Hizzonner needs a win in Florida, and not just a squeaker – otherwise he’s probably looking at a spot maybe as a running mate or maybe he’ll just be an also-ran.  What do you think the margin of victory needs to be in a four- or five-way contest in order to be able to convincingly claim real success?  Ten percent, maybe?  And sure, we can get old school and just talk about delegates (which is what really counts, after all), but people seem to get really mad when they realize exactly how un-democratic the partisan nominating processes really are.

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