February 7, 2008

Nightmare Scenario, Or, Denver PD Better Step Up

Someone leaked a forecast memo from the Obama campaign, forecasting the results of the complete Democratic primary. The projection is 1,806 delegates for Obama, and 1,789 for Clinton. Seems about right to me -- and that result is as close to a tie as could reasonably be imagined.

Note that to be nominated, one of the two of them would need 2,026 delegate votes. Two things would come into play that could put either of them over the top. As you will see, that means the advantage goes to Clinton.

The first is that Michigan and Florida have been stripped of their 366 delegates. If they are re-certified, the amount needed to win goes up by 183 delegates to 2,209 -- but Clinton would get the majority of those delegates. As I see it, taking the Obama campaign's leaked projection, along with the proportional delegates from those states, we'd wind up with Clinton having 1,980 votes, Obama with 1,876, and Edwards with 41.

The second, and more important factor, would be the superdelegates. If Michigan is recertified, then that would create an addition 70 uncommitted delegates, effectively raising the superdelegate count from 796 to 866. Only a small number of those people -- unelected Democratic party elites -- would then decide the nominee.

When something similar happened in 1968, there were riots in the streets of Chicago.


Thomas said...

There is talk that Michigan would re-vote and Florida would divide their delegates according to nationwide averages at the end of the primary season. I seriously doubt the results from Florida and Michigan will stand as is. Obama wasn't even on the ticket in Michigan.

zzi said...

This is what the pundits live for...