February 16, 2008

A Little Early

I'm thinking that maybe I've written the Clinton campaign's obituary a bit early. She's got double-digit leads in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, although Obama seems to be winning everywhere else. And given that there will be somewhere between 800 to 1,000 superdelegates, it's quite likely that the primaries will not actually determine anything. Most of the superdelegates are not committing to either Obama or Clinton, it seems -- and looking at the various counts from yesterday, Obama's lead, while significant politically, is not so great numerically. So it seems likelier to me upon more sober reflection that they will be within tens of pledged delegates of each other upon completion of the South Dakota primary.

So given that there are more unallocated delegates than either candidate has pledged or committed to either of them, and they've been breaking about 60/40 in each state for the winner, it's pretty clear that this won't really be decided until Denver, and while Obama will have the argument that he is both more popular (got more votes) and polling better against John McCain, Clinton will have the argument that she has more machinery available and more people owe her favors. I'm now limiting my prediction to a brokered convention, and I can't get a good read on who wins, or how many ballots it takes for the Democrats to figure this out. Maybe John Edwards and his 26 delegates really will be kingmakers.

1 comment:

Orange Phantom said...

kind of ironic that the Dems (still) complain of a stolen election in 2000 and now Hillary appears to be doing the same thing with her own party....