April 22, 2008

No Matter What Happens In Pennsylvania

It's possible that HRC will win big tonight in Pennsylvania. It's possible that BHO will keep it competitive, within 5% or so. It's remotely possible that BHO can pull off an upset win, which would likely be close to a tie.

But even if Clinton gets a big win, that does little to help her. She will still need somewhere between two-thirds to three-quarters of the remaining superdelegates to secure the nomination. My guess is that all the hard-core Clinton supporters have already committed to her. The ones who haven't announced yet are likely going to vote for whoever is most to their own advantage -- either in getting re-elected themselves, or in pleasing some other constituency.

And it also seems likely that neither HRC or BHO will be able to put together enough delegates before the convention to lock things up. After South Dakota and Puerto Rico, look for one of them to announce that they've received enough superdelegate commitments to go over the top, but to not see any proof of it until the Democrats debate in Denver.

But you want my prediction? HRC wins Pennsylvania by 8%, with most of her support coming from the west and central regions of the state.

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