May 3, 2008

Seven Votes

Rick Moran is convinced that Obama will get the nomination. Mike Reynolds is convinced he'll be our next President. And despite everything, the odds are that they're both right. But you can't look at a result like this and feel confident betting the house on that. BHO has typically done very, very well in caucuses. And he did win the Guam caucus. But only by seven votes. You've got to think that 1) Guam is a very military sort of place, and people who like the military and national security are nervous about Obama, 2) Guam is a very, shall we say, unwhite sort of place, and race has become a factor, so this is disappointing indeed for BHO; and 3) maybe this Rev. Wright business is really turning people off after all.

Of course, the "win" by seven votes isn't a win at all; it's a tie. Two delegates each.

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