February 21, 2007

National Primary

Thanks to Ovaloffice2008.com, it's very clear that by February 5, 2008, the Presidential primaries will be effectively over. On that day, it's very likely that Alabama (23), Arkansas (32), Arizona (16), California (1), Florida (4), Illinois (5), Missouri (18), North Carolina (10), New Jersey (11), New York (3), Texas (2), and Utah (34) will have primaries for both parties. Also, Republicans will also have primaries in North Dakota (48) and Oklahoma (28), and Democrats will have primaries in New Mexico (36) and Delaware (45).

The numbers are the ranks of population for each state. Thus, the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth most populous states in the nation will all have their primaries on the same day. The total number of people voting on February 5, 2008 will represent more than one-half of all Americans, and by extension, more than one-half of all the delegates needed for the successful candidates to earn their respective parties' nominations.

Also of interest is the fact that Iowa, jealous of its position as the first Presidential nomination contest of any consequence, is considering moving its caucuses back two or three weeks, which would mean that the first for-the-marbles contest of the 2008 election will take place in 2007, making the front-loading of the election season even greater and even sillier.

The effective national primary on February 5, 2008 will so powerfully dwarf the handful of delegates available in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries that they will lack much importance and the punditocracy will be unable to help getting around that. No disrespect to the good people of those states, but the new Super Tuesday is about the only contest that's going to really matter. This has made the primary season even more weighted to favor candidates with high name recognition, low negatives with party base voters, and the ability to raise big money, as if it weren't that way already.

Yet another reason why it's going to be Clinton versus Giuliani. Let the race to become their running mates begin!

1 comment:

zzi said...

It's just that it cost so much money to run a campaign.