Still Thinking Sebelius

Senator Joe Biden says "I'm not the guy." I believe him. I would like it to be Biden for two reasons -- first, my preference is McCain over Obama and I think Biden presents a target-rich opportunity for Republicans to attack. Second, if Obama-Biden gets elected, I think Biden would provide a needed level of maturity, experience, and foreign policy expertise otherwise lacking. But, Biden says, "I'm not the guy."

So who is? I don't think there is a perfect choice. But my money is still be on Kathleen Sebelius. Tim Kaine would be a good choice for Obama, too. But applying rudimentary game theory to the decision, Sebelius seems like she presents the most upside with the least downside.

Sebelius offers the best advantages-to-disadvantages ratio of the available choices, especially since Biden has made it clear that “I’m not the guy.” Her disadvantages: Doesn’t help on foreign policy; most rabid of PUMAs will be offended that the choice was a woman other than HRC. Her advantages: Is still a woman, popular governor of a “red” state, perceived as both politically moderate and administratively competent, and she’s not going to be portrayed as a Washington insider.

Unlike some people, I'm moved by her popularity in her state -- I think she can probably carry Kansas, which is six points out of McCain’s column and into Obama’s that otherwise would have been conceded. Kaine may not be able to flip Virginia for Obama; on the other hand, Obama might be able to flip Virginia without him. Sebelius, at minimum, makes the Democrats competitive in Kansas, which means a fire in McCain's backyard that he has to expend resources to put out.

The play here is to double down on the “new” and “change” themes – which are strong for Obama – and to put McCain on the defensive somewhere he otherwise would not need to be. McCain's calm non-response to Obama opening up twenty field offices in Indiana has been vindicated as that state has remained stubbornly red. We'll see if that pays off in the long run, but thing of it is, McCain can't afford to be so aloof in the Sunflower State if Kansas' popular two-term governor is right there on the ticket.

As for Clinton? I’ve said it before – if I were advising her, I’d tell her to make a play for Governor of New York in 2010. It’s no small thing to be Governor of New York and I have to imagine it would be hers for the taking. If Obama loses in November (and the popular vote gap has narrowed to less than one point), and she’s Governor of New York, it would take a mighty wind indeed to keep the nomination out of her hands in 2012.