February 18, 2009

Five Thirty Eight Predicts The Oscars

If I were going to handicap the Oscars, there are three awards I would be pretty confident in -- Heath Ledger for Best Supporting Actor, Danny Boyle for Best Director, and Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture. I wouldn't have a clue who to pick for Best Actor or Best Actress, or Best Supporting Actress. Even those guesses would be conditional, seeing as despite how much I love the movies. I've not seen very many of the movies that have the major nominations.

Of the various movies in question, here's my track record this year.

MovieStatus
ChangelingHaven't seen it but want to
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonLooked like a rental
The Dark KnightSaw it, really liked it
DoubtNot interested
Frost/NixonHaven't seen it but want to
Frozen RiverNot interested
MilkModerately interested
Rachel Getting MarriedNot on your life
The ReaderNot interested
Revolutionary RoadYawn
Slumdog MillionaireSaw it, loved it
Tropic ThunderLooked like a rental; this really got a nomination?
Vicky Christina BarcelonaLooked like a rental
The VisitorSaw part of it on a plane, liked it
The WrestlerLooked like a rental

Abyssmal, I know. Two and a half of the fifteen movies deemed most worthy of notice this year by People Who Really Care About Such Things. But there you have it; I've actually not been out to the movies all that much this past year.

Fortunately, one of the guys who was behind FiveThirtyEight.com has turned his statistician's eye to the Oscars and he agrees with all three of my predictions. He's also handicapping Kate Winslet for Best Actress for her role in The Reader, Mickey Rourke for his role in The Wrestler, and Taraji P. Henson for her role in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button.

I guess Mickey Rourke is a logical choice. But it's sort of a shame to see Richard Jenkins get such short shrift. The Visitor was a perfectly charming film, and Jenkins is a cool actor. I really liked him playing the Late Nate on Six Feet Under and he brings this empathetic quirkiness to everything he does. But I've not seen Mickey Rourke's performance in The Wrestler, and maybe he was just really, really good. The preview sure made it look like it was specially-written for Oscar appeal.

4 comments:

SPARTACUS said...

i do not undestand you Americans and your COMPLETE STUPIDITY

look

the guy who wrote this says he didn;t see the reader.

that says it all right there

THE READER IS BY 50 BILION TIMES FAR FAR AND AWAY A BETTER MOVIE THAN SLUMDOGG IS, IT AINLT EVEN CLOSE

THE READER BLOWS IT OUT OF THE WATER

YET I AGREE

BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE UNENDINGLY STUPID, LIKE THIS GUY WHO SAYS HE ISNL;T INTERESTED IN SEEING THAT FILM BUT HERE HE IS PICKING WHICH MOVIE DESERVES TO WIN BEST PICTURE

THE SAD FACT IS SLUMDOGG DOESNOT DESERBVE THAT AWARD AND IT'S DIRECTOPR DID HALF THE JOB THE DIRECTOR OF THE READER DID...PERIOD !!!

TO HAVE SEEN BOTH MOVIES AND TO PICK SLUMDOGG YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE A RETARD

THIS GUY DIDN'T EVEN SEE THE READER AND IS CALLING SLUMDOGG BEST PICTURE!!!

THE SAD FACT IS THE ACADEMY IS GOING TO MAKE SLUMDOGG THE WINNER AND THERE IS NO WAY IT DESERVES THAT AWARD BEFORE THE READER...IT AIN'T ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD A MOVIE !!!

Transplanted Lawyer said...

Spartacus, I appreciate your sentiment. Your tone, however, could use some improvement.

I also suggest leaving your CAPS LOCK key off.

Pamela said...

I liked Defiance, and am surprised that there seemed to be no mention for that film. Spartacus, you need to learn to be more self - controlled in your speech. Whether you agree or disagree with the choices of others should not permit you to be so offensive.

"There is hunger for ordinary bread, and there is hunger for love, for kindness, for thoughtfulness, and this is the great poverty that makes people suffer so much." - Mother Teresa

"Kindness is more important than wisdom, and the recognition of this is the beginning of wisdom."
- Theodore Rubin

"You cannot do a kindness too soon, for you never know how soon it will be too late."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Transplanted Lawyer said...

Thanks, Pamela. A good reminder.

I'll point out that I never said that Slumdog was a better movie than The Reader. What I said is that it was more likely to win the Best Picture award.