An Example Of How THE ISSUE Trumps Everything Else When It Comes To The Supreme Court

Rush Limbaugh called Sonia Sotomayor a "reverse racist." But he may support her nomination to the Supreme Court anyway. Why? She's Catholic and has an unclear record on THE ISSUE. That is why my guide to language surrounding Supreme Court nominations refers so heavily to that particular matter. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

By the way, it's not insignificant that she's Catholic. Consider:

Justice	Religion	Voting Pattern on Abortion Rights Cases
John Roberts	Roman Catholic	Restrict Roe/Casey
John Paul Stevens	Protestant	Affirm Roe/Casey
Antonin Scalia	Roman Catholic	Overturn Roe/Casey
Anthony Kennedy	Roman Catholic	Varies
David Souter	Protestant	Affirm Roe/Casey
Clarence Thomas	Roman Catholic	Overturn Roe/Casey
Ruth Bader Ginsburg	Jewish	Affirm Roe/Casey
Stephen Breyer	Jewish	Affirm Roe/Casey
Samuel Alito	Roman Catholic	Restrict on Roe/Casey

What this adds up to is that all non-Catholic Justices would sustain existing abortion law; only Kennedy would keep Planned Parenthood v. Casey (which altered and moderately restricted Roe v. Wade, based on an "undue restriction" and "viability" standard) in place. Note that in the case of Roberts and Alito, I'm reading tea leaves a little bit from their Federalism opinions and votes in Gonzales v. Carhart.

So Kennedy right now is the deciding vote; he's generally voted to affirm Casey, but in Carhart, he sustained the ban on partial-birth abortions, thus restricting abortion rights somewhat. Since Sotomayor is going to replace Souter, and the religion-based voting pattern holds with her, that turns a reliable "affirm" vote into a wobbly vote to at least further restrict abortion rights.