Barack Obama's Unlikely Handicap

Yesterday, Illinois' junior Senator, Barack Obama, made it official: he will seek the Democratic Party's nomination for President in 2008. His campaign website is filled with only good things about himself, which would be a great problem for some people, if he were not a Democrat. But I predict that despite his great charisma, powerful rhetorical ability, and center-left positioning on the issues of the day, he will not succeed. Why?

Senator Obama gave the keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. And it was a terrific speech. They almost all are. But no one who has given a keynote address at a party's national convention, in the modern era of politics, has gone on to earn that party's nomination for President. Here is the history:

Year	Democrat	Republican
2004	Barack Obama	Zell Miller
2000	Harold Ford, Jr.	Colin Powell & John McCain
1996	Evan Bayh	Susan Molinari
1992	George McGovern	Pat Buchanan
1988	Ann Richards	Thomas Kean
1984	Mario Cuomo	Katherine Ortega
1980	Ted Kennedy	Guy Vander Jagt
1976	Barbara Jordan	Howard Baker
1972	(Cannot determine)	Anne Armstrong
1968	Daniel Inouye	(None designated)

As you can see, there are some pretty significant names on those lists. Colin Powell. John McCain. Evan Bayh. Ann Richards. Mario Cuomo. Ted Kennedy. George McGovern gave the keynote speech only after he had run for President (and failed). Barack Obama would be the first keynote speaker to use that highly-visible platform to go on to become the party's nominee.

For whatever reason, the keynote speaker address seems to carry the Best New Artist curse. It's an honor and a tremendous opportunity, but for whatever reason, no one who's done it has gone on to play for all the marbles.